Sydney Hunter Illawarra Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Fri Jun 7th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small leftover surf Sat, easing, clean with offshore winds
• Building S'ly swells Sun, easing Mon, generally clean with offshore winds
• Minor E/NE swell Sun
• Late pulse of S'ly swell Tues PM
• Large S'ly swell building Wed, peaking early Thurs
• Solid S'ly swell Fri/Sat

Recap

Smaller south swell on Thursday (2-3ft) bumped a bit today with sets around 3-4ft at south facing beaches, smaller elsewhere thanks to the swell direction. Winds have been generally W’ly north of the harbour, but SW to the south, tending S’ly along the South Coast, thanks to a deepening trough-cum-low that’s generated heavy rainfall (and bigger surf) south from the Illawarra.

Fun clean peaks on the Cenny Coast this afternoon

This weekend (Jun 8 - 9)

We’ve got a complex weekend of waves.

The surface trough that’s now a low pressure system (off the South Coast) will temporarily weaken overnight before restrengthening during Saturday. 

There’s a few developments on the boil as a result.

The current swell source (from a S/SE fetch around the low’s SW flank) will rapidly abate over the coming hours (leaving us with early 2ft+ sets at south facing beaches on Saturday, smaller elsewhere, clean with W'ly winds, size easing during the day), but at the same time we’ll see a N/NE infeed develop throughout the central Tasman Sea, which will generate a small sideband E/NE swell for Sunday.

Unfortunately it looks like it won’t last long within our swell window (and will be only short in length/width) so its influence will be fleeting, perhaps some stray 2ft+ sets at exposed beaches throughout the day.

As the coastal low picks up steam on Saturday we’ll see strong S/SW winds contained within a thin fetch, parallel to the Southern NSW coast, and they’ll generate some short range S’ly swell for the South Coast later Saturday, reaching most locations early Sunday. The initial stationary nature of this fetch should override the deficiencies associated with its short length and width, but we should see building surf into the 3-4ft range at south swell magnets (mainly the Hunter, smaller elsewhere) by the afternoon.

Beaches not open to the south will see smaller surf, and most locations will probably be undersized early morning. Conditions will be generally clean with early W’ly winds tending SW. 

Next week (Jun 10 onwards)

A new front will slide up the coast on Monday, bringing an afternoon southerly change following early morning W/SW winds. We’ll see leftover S’ly swells around 2-3ft at south facing beaches (smaller elsewhere) easing further during the day but being supplemented by short range windswell in the wake of the change, with quality deteriorating at the same time.

The rest of the week has a procession of strong fronts pushing through the Tasman Sea, generating solid back-to-back southerly swells.

Initially we’ll see small residual south swells on Tuesday morning, before the afternoon heralds the arrival of a small long period south swell, generated by a strong front pushing below Tasmania into the Tasman Sea (the first of the progression). It’s only suggesting an outside chance for a late surf but we may see 3-4ft sets in the last few hours of the day if the timing holds steady (location south from Sydney will pick this up a little earlier). 

Freshening W/NW winds all day will precede a major front and low dropping into the Tasman Sea later Tuesday (see below) that will build large S’ly swells for Wednesday, likely up into the 6-8ft+ range by late afternoon and possibly nudging a little higher overnight into Thursday. 

Strong followup systems behind this should maintain 4-6ft surf through Friday and into the start of next weekend.

So yeah, winter is into fifth gear, we’ve got stacks of swell on the way so there’s no need to grovel around the small days in the short term.

See you Monday!