Sydney Hunter Illawarra Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Jun 3rd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Strong S swell, easing in the a'noon,  with a smaller E/NE swell Mon, better conditions as winds go W
• Easing S swells and small E/NE swell Tues 
• Bump in E/NE swell later Tues, holding into Wed with offshore winds
• Still uncertain outlook for second half of this week depending on low 
• Low may move out and redevelop later this week bringing more S swell this weekend
• Possible E/NE swell from infeed into low laster this week and into the weekend
• Wintry pattern expected next week as strong fronts push up over the interior
• Likely a series of S swells later next week- check back Wed for latest updates

Recap

Dynamic weekend unfolded as a trough off low pressure formed and deepened off the Central NSW Coast, moving generally S by S/SW over the weekend and intensifying. Small to start on Sat with a late kick in new SE swell. Sunday was super solid with S/SE- SE swells to 6-8ft+ and winds which veered offshore for most of the region as the low moved south. Still very solid today with pumping swells from the S-S/SE to 8ft (10ft sets) across exposed stretches, even bigger at open bommies, smaller into more sheltered corners and offshore W’ly winds under bluebird skies. An easing trend from the dominant S/SE swell is expected as swell generating winds are now tucked below the Gippsland coast.

Plenty of strong energy Sun with the lagoon showing how much rain fell

This week (Jun 3-7)

At 6am the coastal low is tucked in very close to the NSW/Victorian border with gales aimed primarily at Gippsland and NE Tasmania. A trough line connected to the low remains angled SW/NE in the Tasman with a N-N/NE infeed along the trough line. With the movement of the low into the coast, winds on the southern flank are now out of the swell window so we’ll be relying on the NE infeed into the trough and potential small lows forming in the trough line for swells in the short term once the current S/SE swell fades out. Models are suggesting remnants of the low eventually move back into more central parts of the Tasman and redevelop as frontal activity sweeps in later this week. Still a lot of model divergence on that scenario so expect plenty of revisions this week.

In the short run we should see all day offshores through tomorrow, and most of Wed as the low remnants linger off the Tasmanian/Gippsland coast. S/SE swell will drop right down in the mix, just a few 2-3footers tomorrow, with E/NE swell building from 2-3ft to 3 occ. 4ft in the a’noon. 

Expect that swell to hold into Wed morning before easing off. Depending on how the low remnants behave we may see winds shift more S/SW Wed a’noon. Either way there should be plenty of fun waves around.

Model divergence makes the second half of the week look very tricky. The low may continue to hug the Gippsland coast leading to SW winds and small surf. GFS suggests the low moving offshore and redeveloping, possibly joined by another trough of low pressure moving down from the sub-tropics. That may generate another round of fun E/NE swell from winds infeeding into the trough/low.

We’ll also pencil in some sort of rebuild in S-SE swell from the southern flank of a low either late this week or into the weekend. Definitely low confidence in specifics so if you can wait until Wed before making plans that would be prudent.

This weekend (Jun 8 - 9)

As per previous paragraph confidence is low on specifics for the weekend but there’s good odds we’ll see S swell, either bog standard frontal 3-4ft or a juicier 4-6ft with SW-S winds depending on how the low pressure situation resolves in the Tasman. Check back Wed and we’ll dial in specifics.

Next week (Jun 10 onwards)

Looks like we’ll see the first winter front sweep up across the SE of the country with winds likely to tend fresh W’ly (possibly pre-frontal NW) early next week.

Expect easing levels of whatever S-SE swells we have on tap into Mon or Tues. 

The first in a series of fronts is likely to be very zonal so only small S swells are expected.

A following front is showing signs of being much better aligned for swell production at this early stage so we may see a winter style S swell later next week.

We have to get through the current period of dynamic instability in the Tasman so expect some revisions when we come back Wed.

In the meantime enjoy the offshore winds.
Seeya Wed.