Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 31st July)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small S swell blend Tues with SW-S winds
• Stronger S swell Wed with light morning winds tending onshore then NE
• Small NE windswell building Thurs, extending through region on Fri with N’ly winds
• Small amounts of NE windswell extending into the weekend
• Should see some E/NE tradewind swell filtering down from sub-tropics this weekend
• Troughy outlook next week with potential for SE-E/SE swell - revisions likely

Recap

S’ly swell hung in there nicely over the weekend with most S facing beaches seeing 2-3ft surf Sat, extending into Sun before slowly backing down through the day. Mostly clean conditions under morning land breezes and light winds. Today has seen surf ease back further, mostly 1-1.5ft with the odd 2 footer on hand. Clean conditions still on hand under W’ly winds which will tend light/variable through the day. 

Still the odd small clean wave on offer this morning for the patient

This week (Jul31-Aug4)

We’ve got a classic winter, stratified pattern with a high pressure belt over the continent, extending out into the Tasman Sea and a robust W’ly storm track below the maritime continent. We’ll see frontal intrusion into the Tasman early this week, with a small front passing into the Tasman today and a stronger system following behind it tomorrow- generating more pulses of S swell mid week. Once the dominant high enters the Tasman on Wed we’ll see a N’ly pattern start to establish, more typical of Spring/Summer, likely extending into the weekend with some workable NE windswell associated with it.

In the short run not much on offer tomorrow. Tiny to start under offshore winds with the best S swell magnets under 2ft. We should see a few traces of longer period S swell make landfall through the a’noon, not much more than the odd 2ft wave at S facing beaches and with a light onshore flow it will barely be worth working around.

Wednesday will see significantly more S swell in the water as a stronger front pushes NE into the Tasman tomorrow. As mentioned on Friday though winds look iffy as high pressure quickly establishes a ridge up the Eastern Seaboard with an onshore flow. We may see a brief period of offshore flow across the Northern Beaches through the morning before winds tend SE-E/SE through the morning. The high moves offshore quickly, with winds tending more NE in the a’noon, favouring S facing beaches. Size in the 2-3ft range should build into the 4-5ft range with some bigger surf to 4-6ft likely on the Hunter and reliable S facing magnets.

The N’ly pattern holds through Thurs with morning NW winds before a freshening N’ly flow really kicks up during the day. Mid period S swell holds 3-4ft sets, easing during the day, with traces of longer period S swell adding some extra energy to S facing beaches. We’ll see some NE windswell energy building during the a’noon, especially on the South Coast, where some 2-3ft surf is likely. Smaller sub 2ft around Sydney and north to the Hunter. 

More N’lies to end the working week. High pressure will be slow moving in the Central Tasman with a N’ly fetch adjacent to the NSW Coast slowly extending northwards. As the fetch lengthens we should see NE windswell extend through the region. We’ll see how the fetch looks Wed but we should see workable 2 to occasional 3ft surf Fri at breaks exposed to NE swell. Similar winds to Thurs- early NW tending mod N to NE during the day.

This weekend (Aug 5-6)

Looks like a small mixed bag for the weekend. Winds look to remain N’ly at this stage, although an inland trough and weak, troughy area along the coast may see lighter winds or possibly even a weak S’ly change.

Small amounts of NE windswell Sat will be supplemented by E/NE swell filtering down from the sub-tropics and Northern Tasman as the dominant high slowly moves E’wards. Nothing major, 2ft of surf at this stage, offering up a few workable peaks at open beaches.

Strong storm systems in the Southern Ocean close to the ice shelf later this week look to send long period swell towards Fiji (primarily) but we may see some glancing swell trains Sun at S swell magnets, with some very inconsistent 2-3ft surf possible. Elsewhere it’ll be mostly E/NE swell to 2ft keeping surfable wave heights on offer.

Next week (Aug 7 onwards)

A troughy pattern is expected in the Tasman next week. We may already see an angled trough and low pressure start to form early next week, bringing a S’ly flow to temperate NSW. Not much surf is expected to start the week, likely in the 1-2ft range Mon, extending into Tues.

By mid next week, major models suggest a broad area of low pressure in the Tasman, with EC locating this area in the Northern Tasman at sub-tropical latitudes and GFS positioning it off the NSW temperate coast.

We’ll see how it shapes up. Under the latter scenario we’ll see some useful SE-E/SE swell develop from mid week, likely with winds from the same direction.

EC scenario suggests surf more focussed on NENSW and SEQLD. 

The troughy outlook will reduce confidence in these outcomes so check back Wed and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.