Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 28th July)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small S swells this weekend- slightly bigger Sat- with mostly offshore winds and patches of N'ly winds
• Tiny surf Mon
• Small S swell blend Tues with SW-S winds
• Stronger S swell Wed with light morning winds tending NE
• Potential for small NE windswell late next week
• Should see some E/NE tradewind swell filtering down from sub-tropics late next week into the weekend

Recap

S’ly groundswells held surf in the 4-5ft range yesterday, bigger on the Hunter, before a slow easing after lunch. Clean conditions before winds tended generally N’ly to NE’ly in the a’noon. Waverider buoys showed another spike in period late in the day and this pulse of long period S swell is producing 3-4ft surf this morning at S facing beaches, cleanest on the Hunter under NW winds and mixed in with some N’ly gurgle elsewhere. All in all, a pretty fun week if you could find somewhere handling long period S swells.

Still some long lines of S swell around, defintely cleanest on the Hunter

This weekend (July 29-30)

Not much change to the weekend f/cast. A trough and cold front are being rapidly shunted southwards by a blocking high which is moving NE into the sub-tropical Tasman and weakening. The current swell sources are slowly drying up leaving us with small background swells supplying small fun surf.

Winds look good though for squeezing the last juice from the lemon. Light offshore breezes through the morning may tend N’ly in patches through tomorrow as a weak trough approaches, with a W’ly trend apparent again in the a’noon. A small blend of S swells should hold some 2-3ft sets at S facing beaches across but by a’noon energy will be on the wane so make the most of the morning.

Sunday looks smaller, with just traces of S swell holding in the 2ft range, a notch bigger at the most reliable S swell magnets on the Hunter curve. Becoming smaller during the a'noon. Offshore W/NW to NW winds will make S facing beaches nice and clean, defintely worth a squizz.

Next week (July 31 onwards)

We’ll start the week with a weak, troughy pattern while we wait for another large high to arrive from the Bight. 

That will see light land and seabreezes Mon with tiny surf, rideable at reliable swell magnets.

By Tues a front sweeping up past Tasmania in advance of the large high brings SW winds tending S’ly to SE’ly through the day. We should see a small bump in low quality short range S swell mixed in with some traces of longer period swell- up to 2ft or so at S facing beaches, bigger 3ft on the magnets. Keep expectations low due to the S’ly quarter winds but there should be a few options favouring the Northern Beaches to Central Coast.

Stronger S swell then arrives Wed as a more powerful fetch of severe gales rushes through the lower Tasman (see below). Again, this is a fetch better aimed at targets across the Tasman and South Pacific but swell periods should be high enough and the fetch strong enough for a reasonable pulse of S swell back to the Eastern Seaboard. Wave models are suggesting size in the 3ft range at S facing beaches which seems cool and there’s reasonable grounds for suggesting an upgrade on that number- lets see how it looks Mon. High pressure moves off the Sydney coast, with light morning winds and a’noon NE breezes, possibly mod/fresh.

Size eases Thurs as the S swell pulse backs down, likely with some 2-3ft surf early under a freshening N’ly flow. 

A strengthening N’ly flow adjacent to the NSW temperate to Mid North Coast is likely to generate some workable NE windswell later next week, possibly as early as Thurs a’noon, more likely Fri. There may be a sweet spot Fri a’noon as NE windswell peaks and winds shift NW in advance of a cold front. Lets pencil it in and see how Mon looks. 

Another cold front brings a modest S swell next weekend under current modelling. 

Meanwhile the large high sets up a very useful tradewind flow across the Central and Southern Coral Sea, generating a pretty handy tradewind swell for the sub-tropics through the latter half of next week. The fetch extends down into the Northern Tasman and we’ll see some workable E/NE swell start to filter down to temperate NSW likely Fri into next weekend in the 2 to occasional 3ft range during this period. 

Another large high moving in at similar latitudes into next weekend suggests a similar pattern of small SE-E/NE swell into the medium term, favouring the sub-tropics.

That’s a long way off though so let’s see how it’s shaping up Mon.

In the meantime, have a great weekend!