Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 26 July)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Long period S’ly groundswell easing Thurs with good AM winds, tending N’ly in the a’noon
• Another flukey long period S swell Fri (may show late Thurs) with W/NW-NW winds
• Small S swells this weekend with mostly offshore winds and a’noon seabreezes
• Tiny surf Mon
• May see a small S swell Tues
• Stronger S swell Wed with dicey winds
• Potential for small NE windswell later next week
• More  S swells into medium term

Recap

Our mid winter run of surf continues with nice leftover SE swells yesterday holding surf in the 3ft range, bigger by a notch on the Hunter with clean conditions extending through the morning before S’ly quarter winds kicked up. Strong, long period S’ly groundswell was in the water this morning with sets to 4-6ft at S facing beaches and some bigger 6-8ft+ sets reported from the Hunter and deepwater reefs. Primo surface conditions are on offer with light offshore winds expected to tend light/variable through the day. 

Waking up to a strong, long period S groundswell

This week (Jul 26-28)

We’ve still got a massive high pressure system (1037 hPa) moving over inland NSW, slowly weakening as it enters the Tasman Sea through tomorrow and over the weekend. A powerful front has passed through the Tasman, creating our current S’ly groundswell. A more compact but even stronger storm is right behind it, reaching peak strength halfway across the lower Tasman before slamming into the South Island. Settled conditions are then expected over the weekend before another series of fronts traverse the lower Tasman next week.

In the short run we’ll see another offshore morning tomorrow likely lasting well into the late morning/lunch before N’lies kick up in the a’noon. We’ll be on the backside of todays long period pulse but mid period S swell filling in behind the longer period swell will hold 3ft surf at S facing beaches, 3-4ft on the Hunter. Keep eyes on S facing beaches in the a’noon for another pulse of longer period S swell from todays fetch in the lower Tasman. It may hit after dark but a few bigger 4ft sets are possible before close of play- especially at S facing reefs south of Sydney.

Winds tend more W/NW, trending N/NW during the day on Fri as a front approaches. Again, some longer period S swell trains will be in the water, looking to peak in the morning before fading out. Expect 3ft sets, bigger 4ft on the Hunter and other reliable S swell magnets. It’ll be flukey and inconsistent on the sets but background energy should keep rideable surf humming all day.

This weekend (July 29-30)

Not much action now this weekend. Fridays front weakens and gets shunted southwards quickly on Sat, leaving light offshore winds, and a’noon seabreezes. 

Similar winds for Sun under weak pressure gradients.

You’ll need to hunt down swell magnets for small S swells, mostly generated by an off-axis fetch running along the South Island. Traces of longer period swell and mid period S swell will supply a few 2ft waves for S facing beaches Sat- possibly a few 3footers on the Hunter.

Size looks to ease by a notch Sun. 1-2ft at S facing beaches but worth a squizz under perfect conditions.

Next week (July 31 onwards)

Still looking small to start next week with small S swell Mon, under light winds. Likely even smaller than Sun with just marginal conditions at S swell magnets and offshore winds.

A strong front pushes past Tasmania Tues under current modelling (see below). That should see W’ly winds freshen, and tend W/SW through the day. We may see a small kick in S swell Tues from winds out of Bass Strait, but nothing more than 2ft at S facing beaches.

Wed looks a much better bet with a moderate winter S swell episode. We’ll pencil in 3-4ft at S facing beaches and see how it’s shaping up on Fri. Winds looks a bit iffy- with high pressure moving quickly off the NSW Coast suggesting a developing onshore flow. It shouldn’t be too strong.

Further ahead and it looks like we’ll see N’lies later next week, potentially with a NE windswell developing Thurs or Fri. More cold fronts then suggest more episodic swells next weekend.

Check back Fri for the latest update and a last look at the weekend.