Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 24 July)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Leftover E/SE swell Mon, easing further Tues with S’ly winds slowly easing
• Long period S’ly groundswell (solid at S facing beaches) likely Wed/ easingThurs with good winds
• Mod S swell pulse Sat with S’ly quarter winds, easing Sun with winds improving
• Easing surf early next week
• More S swell on the radar from mid next week- check back Wed for revisions

Recap

Heaps of swell energy over the weekend with Sat seeing plenty of S swell in the 4-6ft range, bigger 6ft+ on the Hunter. There was a brief window of clean condition before S’lies kicked in. Quality E/SE groundswell kicked in hard o/night and Sun saw a wide swathe of good/great surf across the region with 4-6ft surf widely reported and some bigger bombs on offer. Morning offshore winds supplied clean conditions for most of the morning before S’ly winds kicked in after lunch and confined clean surf to sheltered spots. Today has seen easing E/SE swell with 3-4ft sets becoming inconsistent under morning land breezes before mod/fresh S’ly winds kick in. All in all, a great weekend of surf.

Pumping surf Sun as strong E/SE swell made landfall under offshore winds

This week (Jul 24-28)

We’ve got a monster high pressure (1037 hPa) sitting on the edge of the Bight and moving slowly eastwards, maintaining a firm ridge up most of the Eastern Seaboard. As the high moves over NSW and then NE into the Northern Tasman we’ll see the ridge breakdown and winds relax. Some powerful but zonal frontal activity will cross the far lower Tasman and send some long period S swell up the Tasman Sea pipe, some of which will wrap into the NSW Coast. Another frontal system then pushes into the Tasman Sea later this week and into the weekend. A typical winter week, lets look at specifics. 

In the short run and  we’ll see more S’ly winds tomorrow, as a weaker portion of a powerful front pushes up along the South Coast. Early winds should tend W/SW-SW around Sydney and northwards before tending S’ly, easing later in the day as the front moves away and high pressure approaches. Early looks best, with leftover E/SE-S/SE swell trains still supplying some inconsistent 2-3ft sets. A bit of short range S’ly windswell from the front adds some low quality energy in the a’noon- not worth working around.

Winds should improve markedly for Wed as high pressure moves over NSW. Light land breezes may last until lunch-time before tending light/variable through the a’noon. Coupled with those great winds will be long period S swell generated by storm force winds as a front/low passes under Tasmania today. That fetch is better aimed at targets across the Tasman but radial spread from the source and refraction coupled with very long periods should see some strong energy at S facing beaches. This will be flukey with some S facing beaches potentially seeing 4-6ft sets (possibly even bigger at deepwater adjacent reefs) while others may miss out or see 3-4ft energy. The Hunter coast should be the most reliable landing place for long period S swells Wed. 

Similar winds Thurs morning with NE winds starting to increase through the a’noon as the high moves into the Tasman. S swell eases back with leftover 2ft sets. We may see another long period pulse move up the coast late in the day- even flukier than Wed as it strikes a glancing blow. More likely south of Sydney and arriving on or after dark north from Sydney. Definitely worth a late look at S facing beaches. 

Traces of long period S swell continue into Fri. Mostly 1-2ft with some S swell magnets hoovering up 3ft sets. Winds look great- pre-frontal W/NW, tending W’ly through the day. If you can find a S swell magnet picking up the swell there should be some small, fun waves on hand.

This weekend (July 29-30)

A cold front pushes NE into the Tasman Sat, under current modelling. Models are offering divergent outcomes for the front with EC suggesting a much weaker system, offering 3ft of S swell while the GFS resolution is a stronger front pushing further up into the Tasman and suggesting a moderate S swell in the 3-5ft range at S facing beaches. Winds look to be SW-S through Sat, which won’t be favourable for S facing beaches. We’ll peg a bog standard S swell for Sat and see how its looking on Wed.

Winds should quickly improve Sun as the front exits stage left, with offshore winds and light a’noon breezes. Leftover S swell in the 2-3ft range looks to supply small, clean surf for Sun. 

Next week (July 31 onwards)

Looks like easing swells into early next week with small S swell Mon, under light winds.

Models suggest another front, possibly tied to a compact but powerful low near Tasmania Tues/Wed which means another round of S swell likely mid next week. We’ll dial in specifics as we go along this week.

More frontal activity looks to be behind that, suggesting this mid-winter run of waves still has some legs to it.

Check back Wed for the latest update.