Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 19th May)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Fun rebuild in SSE-SE swell Fri with mostly SW winds
• Nice mix of SE and E swells Sat with offshore conditions 
• Easing and clean Sun, with traces of long period S swell in the water, winds tending SSW and freshening in the a’noon
• Possible late kick in S swell Sun- Mon more likely
• Solid S swell pulse Mon, with sizey, easing leftovers Tues and improving winds
• Small/mod S swell pulses all next week and into the weekend with mostly offshore winds
• S swells continue into the medium term- check back Mon for updates

Recap

S-S/SE swell held in nicely yesterday in the 3-4ft range, with bigger 4-5ft sets on the Hunter and exposed S facing breaks. Offshore winds early cleaned up most breaks apart from due S facing ones with S’ly winds whipping in during the day and confining clean conditions to sheltered bays. This morning has seen more chunky S/SE swell in the 4ft range, bigger on the Hunter with morning land breezes offering clean conditions north of the Harbour, still a little raw and ragged across the Hunter and other breaks with more S’ly facing aspects.

Great Autumn conditions on the Northern beaches

This weekend (May 20 - 21)

We’re expecting a nice little upgrade for the weekend, Sat especially, with our Tasman low stalling and deepening over the last 24-36hrs, slightly further away from NZ than modelled. That’s allowed E’ly quarter low end gales to develop in our swell window, even if aimed more directly further South. With a blend of SE to E quadrant swell trains in the water and sets to 4ft brushed by an offshore W-W/NW flow we should see plenty of good surf Sat, with an easing trend apparent in the mid-a’noon to late session.

That easing trend continues into Sun with leftover 3ft sets becoming inconsistent as size drop down through the morning, tending to 2ft surf post lunch. Early offshore W/NW-W winds will shift W/SW through the day then SW as a front pushes through, blowing out S facing beaches. We may see a late kick in new S swell flowing on from a strong front pushing NE into the Tasman Sunday but it’s more likely in after dark across Sydney.

Next week (May 22 onwards)

Plenty of size now expected for Mon with the front pushing gales NE into the Tasman in a wide swathe and a deeper low tracking well to the south with stronger gales, albeit not quite connected to the frontal fetch. 

Expect mod SW winds Mon, easing during the day as the front moves away and a troughier area in advance of a large high moves across Central NSW. Size to 5-6ft, bigger 6-8ft on the Hunter is now expected, with a mix of (dominant) mid period and longer period swell trains making landfall.

That peak will come down Tues with size to 4-5ft, bigger 6ft+ on the Hunter and exposed S facing reefs. Winds look great with a weak front pushing through Bass Strait and high pressure moving over the area generating a morning W/NW-NW flow likely tending to light a’noon NE seabreezes.

Strong frontal activity persists under Tasmania right through next week and although the fetches are very zonal (W-E) swell models do tend to underestimate swell production and refraction into the Tasman Sea from these fetches. 

Winds look great for most of next week with the high pressure cell sitting far enough north for a synoptic W’ly flow with light seabreezes for most of the week.

We’ll pencil in pulses for Wed, likely in the 3-4ft range at S facing beaches, easing into Thurs with another pulse Fri into Sat.

We’ll see how those are shaping up when we come back on Mon. More S swell looks to be on the menu as we enter the week 29/5, although at this stage in the small/moderate range as the fetches remain zonal and not penetrating fully into the Tasman Sea.

Check back Mon for the latest and have a great weekend!