Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 10th May)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Surf rebuilding from the S Wed PM, easing Thurs, though still sizey with winds easing 
• Smaller, mixed bag to end the week with light winds
• Small mixed bag continues over the weekend with tricky winds- S’ly Sat, variable on Sun
• Small, weak E/NE swell expected early next week
• Moderate S swell spike expected Wed
• More subdued outlook into the end of next week

Recap

Plenty of S swell yesterday although significantly down on Mondays XL event with the Hunter topping out around 6-8ft and mostly 5-6ft surf elsewhere. Conditions were clean enough early under W’ly winds which tended SW during the day. Today has seen a smaller start (still sizey!)  with clean S swell to 4-6ft across most of the region’s S exposed breaks  and bigger 6ft surf on the Hunter. A reinforcing pulse of S swell is just showing on Southern wave-rider buoys and is expect to see surf rebuild into the 6ft+ range this a’noon under SW/S winds.

Still plenty of S'ly energy in the water this morning

This week (May10-12)

The strong reinforcing cold front is now almost across the Tasman with a large (1031hPa) high moving across from the Bight and already setting up a ridge along the QLD Coast. High pressure moves into the Tasman as we end the week with a dominant role into next week before a front and possible low brings another strong S’ly surge with an accompanying S swell.

In the short run and we’ll see winds lay down through tomorrow as the high approaches with morning offshore breezes tending light S’ly before easing to light/variable breezes. Surf-wise S’ly swells will be on the slow wane still producing 4-5ft surf early, 6ft on the Hunter settling a notch into the 3-5ft range with a bias towards the smaller end of that range. 

Friday looks like a nice mop-up day for the beachies with high pressure moving out into the Tasman bringing a N’ly flow. We should see light W-NW breezes early before mod N’lies kick up with leftover S swell to 3ft at S facing beaches, mixed in with some small E swell to 2ft on the sets. A great day to evaluate the effects of this weeks XL S swell on local sandbanks.

This weekend (May 13 - 14)

Not a great deal of action expected this weekend.

A troughy S’ly change brings mod SW tending S’ly winds Sat and this change looks to be across the region overnight and early morning. Residual S-SSE swell will hold a few 2-3ft sets through the morning with an inconsistent E swell signal from the South Pacific adding a few 2ft sets into the mix. 

Sunday looks even smaller with all source easing and only a weak mixed bag of residual S and E swells supplying a few 2ft sets. Winds should ease back under a troughy pattern, likely tending light SE in the a’noon.

Next week (May 15 onwards)

Next week still has the strong high in the Tasman but the focus of the windfield is now further north so expectations for summer style E-E/NE swell for temperate NSW have been dialed back. 

We’ll expect a quiet start to next week with only minor levels of peaky 2ft swell from the E-E/NE under light winds, which should tend to classic land and seabreezes.

By Tues we should see a trough deepening somewhere in the Tasman Sea with models really struggling to resolve the dynamic situation. A  front looks to arrive later Tues and bring a a stiff S’ly change, extending into Wed.

The front is expected to interact with the deepening trough of low pressure generating a S’ly fetch through the Tasman Sea Tue into Wed before the system quickly departs stage left (out past the North Island).

We’ll fine-tune size and timing Fri but current modelling suggests a bog standard S swell blast likely pushing up into the 4-5ft range Wed under S’ly winds before easing off quickly Thurs into Fri.

Medium range then suggests a pause with quiet surf next weekend 20-21/5, possibly with some small S swell. Probably a good chance to fix some dings.

Check back Fri for the latest and a last look at the weekend.