Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 8th May)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• XL S swell event Mon as deep low forms in Tasman with strong/gale force SW winds
• Surf easing a notch into Tues (still v. solid!) and rebuilding strongly Wed PM, easing Thurs
• Smaller, mixed bag to end the week with light winds
• Small mixed bag continues over the weekend with tricky winds
• Summer style E/NE swell expected early next week
• Dynamic outlook from mid next week- potential low pressure trough in the Tasman, check back Wed for updates

Recap

Leftover S swell supplied clean, fun 2ft surf Sat, 3ft on the Hunter with light winds. Sunday eased back to a small  2ft with a small signal of E/NE swell in the water and freshening W’ly winds as a low deepened off the South Coast. Overnight, severe gales in proximity to the NSW South/Central Coast have generated large-extra large S swells with exposed coasts and bommies seeing 10-12ft+ surf under strong W-SW winds (NW  through the morning on the Hunter). Select big wave spots in Sydney exposed to direct S swells have been reported at 15-20ft! Only a few surf spots are handling the size and wind.

Sunday night

Monday morning

This week (May8-12)

The combintion of a 996 hPa low just off the coast and a 1034 hPa high in the Bight is creating a very tight pressure gradient with subsequent severe gales and an XL S swell event. The primary focus of this swell is temperate NSW inside the Hunter curve, with other areas seeing much less swell. The primary low moves away to the NE through today with a powerful cold front sweeping into the Tasman Sea operating on an already active sea state to generate a powerful reinforcing swell mid week. 

In the short run and the low moves away to the NE quite quickly overnight, dragging the proximate gales with it. As such we’ll see a climb down in size from todays peaks. There’ll still be heaps of S’ly energy but sets will have dropped back into the 8ft range (still 10ft on the Hunter and exposed Bommies) easing a notch further through the day. Fresh/strong SW-SSW winds continue so protected spots will be the go, if you can find somewhere to handle the steep S’ly angle.

Winds should start to ease into Wed but they’ll remain out of the S’ly quarter so protected spots will be the go again. We’ll see an initial moderation in size back to the 5-6ft range at exposed locations with a strong rebuild up to 6-8ft (8-10ft sets likely on the Hunter) a a new, reinforcing pulse fills in likely late morning/lunch-time. 

By Thursday the high cell will be drifting just east of Bass Strait into the Tasman Sea bringing lighter, more settled winds. Expect a window of SW breezes before light SE-NE winds kick in. There’ll be some 6ft sets still around Thurs morning with an easing trend through the day. It should be a good day for seeing where the sand is at after this major S swell. There’ll be some smaller E/NE swell from the South Pacific in the mix as well to 2-3ft.

Smaller, easing surf to end the week. We should see a light/variable flow through the day with morning W-NW breezes supplying groomed conditions at S facing beaches. A mixed bag of easing S swell to 3-4ft and inconsistent E swell filtering down from the South Pacific will supply some 2-3ft sets. All in all, should be a fun way to end the week.

This weekend (May 13 - 14)

Tricky wind f/cast for the weekend with a troughy area expected off the South/Central Coast, which may bring a shallow S’ly change Sat. Likely we’ll see pockets of lighter winds through the weekend- we’ll fine-tune as we go through the week.

No major swells expected so we’re looking at a small mixed bag both days. Leftovers from the SSE and a small signal of E swell filtering down from the tropics will see mostly 2ft surf this weekend with the odd 3ft set, more likely on Sat. 

Hopefully, sand formations will be favourable for the small swells expected after this week’s reset.

Next week (May 15 onwards)

Strong high in the Tasman early next week, quickly sets up a firm ridge along the QLD Coast, with plenty of coverage of SE-E/SE winds through the Coral Sea. This wind field is expected to move southward into the Northern Tasman Sea as the high drifts towards New Zealand. 

This is likely to see workable summer-style E/NE well develop through early next week. We’ll peg it building into the 2-3ft range through Mon/Tues at this early stage with a light onshore flow, likely tending NE through the period.

Further ahead and an inland trough may exit the coast mid next week potentially creating a dynamic synoptic situation with low pressure forming in the coastal trough line. Models are divergent and we may see several outcomes including a chunky, local NE swell if the infeed into the low winds up.

Potentially we may see S’ly winds develop on the western flank of a surface low generating sizey S swell later next week.

Looks like our dynamic start to May is set to continue into next week, so check back Wed and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.