Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 3rd May)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Low point Thurs AM, with small S swell building during the day with SW-S winds
• Fun S swell Fri with offshore winds tending N’ly
• Small surf Sat with light winds
• Small surf continues Sun, slight increase in E/NE swell, SW winds freshening in the a’noon
• L-XL S swell event early next week as deep low forms in Tasman- stay tuned for updates
• E’ly swell pulses in the mix from the weekend into next week
• Generally dynamic Autumn pattern continues

Recap

Great quality E swell slowly easing has been the story with mostly 3-4ft surf yesterday under offshore winds for most of the day. Today has seen easing surf but with a few quality 3ft sets still in the water and offshore winds. All in all, a great mop up day for the leftover E swell.

Dreamy conditions yesterday with slowly easing E swell

This week (May 3-5)

We’re in between swells at the moment, with weak front having passed into the Tasman and another front and compact low expected to move into the Tasman Sea later today, generating a small S swell event. A much stronger cold outbreak looks poised to spawn a major Tasman Low Sun/Mon with the seasons first serious S swell expected. More details below. 

In the short run the low moves into the Tasman overnight, weakening as it does so. There’ll be a spike in a small mix of swell trains favouring S facing beaches from Sydney north to the Hunter with size building to 2-3ft at S facing beaches, bigger 3-4ft on the Hunter. Early W/SW-SW winds will tend S’ly and likely end up light SSE from the mid of the a’noon as pressure gradients ease.

That should leave some fun S swell in the water for Fri morning with winds tending W’ly well into the mid/late morning before tending variable then light/mod NNE as a small high cell moves off the Central NSW Coast. Expect sets to 2-3ft at S facing beaches, a notch bigger on the Hunter. Nothing amazing but enough to get a shortboard up on the plane.

This weekend (May 6 - 7)

Quiet weekend expected before all hell breaks loose next week with a major low expected in the Tasman Sea.

Winds look good for Sat morning with a nice offshore flow expected as a front and trough linger off the NE coast of Tasmania. Winds should tend SW-S through the day. Surf-wise we’re looking at small levels of leftover SSE swell and a minor amount of E/NE swell filtering down from tradewind fetch in the South Pacific. All told around 2ft with the very occasional bigger set.

Similar size Sunday with a slight increase in E/NE swell, but with long waits for sets and plenty of slow patches. Initially we should see light SW winds through Sun morning and into lunch-time. Through the a’noon we’re expecting the small low between Tasmania and the Gipplsand Coast to deepen quite rapidly and in response SW winds should start to freshen along the temperate NSW Coast. It’s unlikely we’ll see any swell increase Sun as the low stays tucked in behind the swell shadow of Cape Howe although we may see some impressive wind readings at Gabo Island! We’ll fine-tune that Fri if we need to. 

Next week (May 8 onwards)

Monday will be an interesting day. It’s likely we’ll see a very rapid rise in S swell as the deep low moves NE into the Tasman although the timing is still to be determined. Strong gales are expected to develop between the low and an approaching high through Mon. Initially in a thin strip proximate to the Illawarra-Hunter coastline. Under current modelling it’s likely we’ll see small surf through Mon with a rapid kick in size later in the a’noon, possibly up into the 6-8ft range. 

By Tues strong gales exist in a thick fetch aimed right at Central NSW. Typically, full blown fetches like these in such close proximity to the coast generate large surf in the 10-12ft range with big wave spots open to the swell in the 12ft+ range (15ft on the sets is possible). SW-SSW gales inshore will restrict surfing to very few spots. 

From mid next week there’s considerable model divergence with EC suggesting the low moves away to the NE with a slow easing in size and winds from Wed into Thurs- although maintaining heaps of size.

GFS has a slower moving system, hovering off the Hunter Coast through Wed and dissipating through Thurs/Fri. That suggests another day of XL surf Wed with strong winds and a slow roll-off in size with back-up energy from the remnants of the low as it drifts through the Tasman.

Anyway we slice it odds are now pretty good for a major S swell event early next week, likely overpowering most surf spots. 

Check back Fri and we’ll sharpen the focus on this event as well as take a last look at the weekend.