Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 13th Feb)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Large E/NE swell from TC Gabrielle building Sun, holding Mon/Tues, easing Wed, 
• Winds from the S-SE Mon/Tues, becoming light/variable Wed PM
• Small SSE swell Thurs, a notch bigger Fri with NE winds
• Small mixed bag Sat with NE windswell likely in the PM
• NE windswell Sun AM, with a S’ly change expected
• More NE windswell likely Mon, before another S’ly change
• Keeping an eye on a still-active tropics- nothing expected in the short/medium term

Recap

Tricky weekend with not much at all on Sat as NNE swell failed to show across temperate NSW, leaving 2ft or less of surf with light winds, tending N’ly. Sunday started very slow, with some cyclone swell forerunners to 3ft, which faded through the day as a S’ly change kicked in. Late in the a’noon, the swell kicked with sets to 4ft+ observed and reported across the region. Today has seen cyclone swell proper fill in with surf mostly in the 6ft+ range with a few 8ft sets being reported across the region and some even bigger sets at deep-water reefs. S-SE winds have confined surf to protected spots. 

Just starting to fill in Sun a'noon

Pumping by Mon morning

This week (Feb 13-17)

Ex TC Gabrielle is still the main game as far as swell production goes. The former cyclone is now a large sub-tropical storm (SS) slow moving near the top of the North Island. Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes show a broad but short fetch of gales to severe gales extending off the west coast of the North Island, slightly off axis for the East Coast but maintaining a strong swell regime in the short term. A coastal trough along the NSW Coast is being pushed north as a new weak high pressure ridge builds in, bringing SE-E winds until mid-week, with a N’ly pattern setting up from then into the weekend.

In the short run and winds don’t look flash with SE-E direction most of the day- possibly a window of lighter S’lies inshore early, more likely north of Sydney Harbour. Strong E swell continues through tomorrow, with similar size surf to today, possibly just a half notch off todays peak. Expect surf to 6ft+, with some rogue bigger sets in the 8ft range likely although becoming less likely through the a’noon. 

Flukey winds are expected for Wed, as an inland trough area lingers about the South Coast. Early light winds, tend SE-E then lay down in the a’noon and tend E/NE to NE. Groomed conditions are highly unlikely but winds should be light enough to open up some more exposed options. We’ll be on the shoulder of the cyclone swell with early sets to 4-5ft with some rogue 6 footers still possible, declining in size and consistency through the day to 3-4ft with the odd 5 footer still possible. 

By Thurs we’ll see weak pressure gradients with lighter winds- early W to NW before light/mod NE sea breezes kick in. A mixed bag is on offer with some small E swell leftovers to 3ft and a short period signal of SSE swell to 2ft from a trough in the Central Tasman. That should open up options for fun beachies through the day.

Friday sees a weak elongated high pressure moving NE in the Tasman bringing a N to NE flow across temperate NSW. The trough which we mentioned is expected to set up near the South Island and form a decent fetch of slightly off axis S-SSE winds on Tues extending back into the Tasman (see below) which should see some mid-period SSE swell to 3ft with some bigger 4ft sets at S swell magnets. 

This weekend (Feb 18-19)

Easing swells expected this weekend. Sat sees a small mixed bag of mostly SSE swell to 2-3ft early, easing during the day with continuing N-NE winds. We may see some NE windswell build during the a’noon. Models are offering mixed message on windspeeds but we’ll dial that in during the week.

Sun is expected to see a S’ly change as a trough pushes up the coast. Expect some NE windswell early, possibly to 2ft+, easing during the day. The trough is expected to be fast moving with winds quickly tending SE-E.

Next week (Feb 20 onwards)

Looks like another trough approaches early next week with NE winds quickly intensifying Mon and pushing up NE windswell into the 3ft+ range. 

That should see another S’ly change possibly Tues before things settle down briefly, although the troughy pattern suggests more wind changes.

A passing front may send some small S swell by mid week without much size and only showing at reliable S facing beaches.

Further north we may see more developments with tropical depressions in the Coral Sea. We’ll just flag this for now and see how it shapes up this week- any surf for temperate NSW would be late next week or the weekend at the earliest.

A long tradewind fetch is more useful for the sub-tropics but we may start to see some small E/NE swell filter down from the tropics late next week.

We’ll see how all those sources shape up on Wed. Seeya then.