Now, model derived forecasts are an inexact science at the best of times. So if I were positioned somewhere between Port Mac and say, Yamba, about mid-afternoon on Sunday, I don’t think it’d be unreasonable to glance an expectant eye across the coast in hope of some early forerunners.
The size from the deepening Tasman Low off our East Coast has been downgraded with the system expected to sit just a touch too east, with the strongest winds sitting just out our swell window.
Good winds for the most part with Tuesday the pick of the period.
How's the synoptic charts, eh? As discussed ad nauseam all week, we’re looking at the development of a major low pressure system in the south-western Tasman Sea on Saturday.
Give Saturday a miss and head South Sunday for fun clean waves around Middleton and Victor Harbor
Plenty of swell for this weekend and Tuesday/Wednesday but winds look to spoil the party aside for certain protected breaks.
Easing swells into Sunday, when a new swell should fill in and then back off into the middle of the week.
Easing swells into the weekend ahead of a new S/SW groundswell Sunday. From there on wave heights will ease as the trades freshen.
A deep upper cold pool in the upper atmosphere will provide the catalyst for the formation of a deep and powerful Tasman Low directly off our coast on Saturday.
This change will whip up a small south swell for exposed south facing beaches on Thursday, but it looks like the biggest beneficiary will be the Lower Mid North Coast, which should see an earlier influence from a building ridge of high pressure - fresh southerly winds at dawn winds are expected to go variable by lunchtime ahead of a late afternoon nor’easter.
