Slowly building trade swells
South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 31st December)
Best Days: Entire period: plenty of fun workable trade swell with good morning winds. Small for the next few days, increasing slowly over the wekeend and holding a reasonable size through much of next week.
Recap: Plenty of fun small waves out of the east, with windows of OK conditions and light winds.
This week (Jan 1 - 2)
*forecast notes will be brief this week*
More of the same intermittent east swell for the rest of the week (2ft+ or so), plus a new south swell for exposed south facing beaches in Northern NSW.
It’s currently pushing along the southern NSW coast with 3-4ft sets on offer, and should provide inconsistent 3ft+ waves at exposed swell magnets early Thursday before easing during the day (expect smaller surf away from theses locations, and north of Byron Bay.
A second pulse of southerly groundswell will push up along the coast on Friday, probably a little smaller than the early Thursday pulse (maybe some inconsistent 2-3ft at south facing beaches in Northern NSW). However this south swell will also not provide much energy in SE Qld.
Also on Thursday we’ll see small short range E’ly swell originating from a ridge developing across the Northern Tasman Sea in the wake of today’s change. It won’t provide much size but should maintain good consistency in the surf zone otherwise.
Freshening trades about the southern Coral Sea during Friday are on target to produce good waves across SE Qld this weekend, and we may see an early onset late Friday afternoon if we’re lucky (north of Byron Bay). However expect background east swell to dominate most of the day.
Local conditions look to be typical of summer, with early light winds and freshening onshores (E/NE) from mid-late morning onwards.
This weekend (Jan 3-4)
Looking good for most regions as a steady trade wind belt anchors itself in place from the western Coral Sea right through to the South Pacific.
No great strength is expected within this fetch - yet - but the sheer length and breadth of these trades will ensure a quality, long lasting easterly swell for the region. Wave heights will probably be bigger on the Sunshine Coast (reaching 3-4ft here), with smaller surf on the Gold Coast (2-3ft+) and then incrementally smaller surf as you head south of the border.
We’ll also see a small signal of south swell across exposed south facing beaches in Northern NSW all weekend. One pulse in particular on Sunday (probably in the afternoon), originating from a deep polar below Tasmania tomorrow - could end up delivering some fun sets in the 3ft range, bit for the most part expect very inconsistent 2ft waves.
As for local winds, no major strength is expected in the pressure gradient so we can anticipate light morning winds and freshening sea breezes in the afternoon.
Next week (Jan 5 onwards)
The anchored trades across our eastern swell window look like they’ll remain in place for a while, which is good news as it means we’ll see plenty of workable east swell through next week and the weekend.
At this stage most open stretches should see pulsey surf in and around the 3ft mark for most of this period (with slightly bigger waves on the Sunshine Coast), however winds may become fresh and gusty SE at times north of the border as the ridge nudges up against the Qld coast.
Slightly bigger surf is possible through the back half of the week in response to a 'fully developed sea state' but I'll reassess that potential in Friday's notes.
Elsewhere, the weekend’s south swell (in Northern NSW) should linger into Monday morning but otherwise trend downwards for the remainder of next week.
In Monday’s notes I mentioned a troughy feature that could push off the southern NSW coast and develop into a low early next week (although with unknown potential for our neck of the woods). The models have cooled on this scenario for now - not written it off completely, but simply pushed it back in the timeline - so let’s wait to see how future updates pan out.
Have a great New Year - see you all on Friday!
Comments
Some long term gfs models may back my "hail mary"....... Lower Gulf region looking interesting..... Time will tell......
Very long term SD!!! Most models aligning for WA TC Lam to form first and as such whenever there's heightened tropical activity forecast on the medium to long term charts I take the long to very long range charts with a considerable grain of salt.
Just re-reading what you wrote SD as follows:
"First 2 weeks of Jan, keep an eye on the Solomons region.... Solomons thru to Vanuatu... Centre of the circle - say 163 x 12s...... 600km radius..... Watch that space........ It may seem like a huge area, but compared to the whole south pacific, it's quite a small region............ And watch the Gulf of Carpentaria...... A cyclone forming and crossing the Cape into the coral sea is a longshot.... If one forms, it's just as likely to head south and drench the inland... My main point is we are due for a gulf storm, and we haven't had an east travelling gulf cyclone reform in the pacific for a long time........"
No disrespect SD, but you've pretty much got a majority of conceivable scenarios for any tropical developments from the gulf, Coral Sea, Solo's and even touching into the Tropical South Pacific (Van) covered in the above paragraph, so no matter what comes to fruition, you'll be pretty much able to paraphase the above and say "I told you so".
Local winds are gonna be the X factor for this sustained bout of tradewind swell coming IMO. It's gonna be a case of sacrificing surf size for better quality (ie less wobbly) waves me thinks.
And how's the length of that fetch next week.......damn impressive fetch length extending way out past (east) of NZ for the trades. Me thinks she may well just punch above her weight if that fetch comes off.
I must admit I was a little skeptical of that Vanuatu- Solomon's scenario and even more so of the GOC . It was only one or two runs that showed that Melanesian instability .
But since most models started dropping any serious continental penetration of PTC Lam over the NW , it looks like this MJO pass / slow crawl could produce all three .....
Happy days . This MJO stall crawl could see the adjacent Sth High/Ridge give us some good weather down here . And ideally if a Vanuatu new cal system dipped down and squeezed those fully developed sea state trades then you boys could be towing again ?!? ;-)
"This MJO stall crawl could see the adjacent Sth High/Ridge give us some good weather down here"
Please explain Southey? Meaning a synoptic chart like today's?
I was very specific , Don.... 2 regions in a vast area....
You're getting worried... ;)..
If a TD falls outside the 600km radius circle, or not in the gulf vicinity, bad luck sheepy.... No cigar..... BTW, I didn't include the following areas - Eastern Torres/ New guinea, west of Bougainville, Iron range, Princess Charlotte, Cairns, Townsville, Mackay, and the region between there and New Cal', the region between New Cal' and Vanuatu - Fiji, Fiji to Tonga, Samoa, Niue, Tokelau, Fongafale...... So c'mon mate.... You're sweating ;)
BTW2.... W.A.... Predicting early td's and cyclones off there, the NT or in the Indian ocean is like predicting the sun will come up tomorrow..... They always get earlier tds... Well 95% of the time anyway....
Last year - first cyclones - Alessia, bruce, Christine
year before - Boldwin, Claudia...
year before that - Alenga
year before that - Anggrek, Abele
2009/10 was the last time the pacific had the first td.... And it's only happened 3 times since 1997.....
No cigar for you, donny ;)
The only thing I'd change in my hail mary would be - re' gulf - change from "A cyclone forming and crossing the Cape into the coral sea ", to " A td forming in the gulf then heading east and crossing the qld coast into the coral sea"......
"The only thing I'd change in my hail mary would be - re' gulf - change from "A cyclone forming and crossing the Cape into the coral sea ", to " A td forming in the gulf then heading east and crossing the qld coast into the coral sea"......"
So now you're changing your story already mate!!!
And I believe I was quite specific. I said in the next two weeks the NEXT TC would be off the WA/NT coast and I didn't mean WA or NT. I meant right off the border. Can't be too much more specific than that. And if you've got a 600km radius as your call then let's use the same radius with my call. Centre of the circle WA/NT border with a 600km radius (BTW that's a 1200km diameter circle for your cyclone to form in. That's more than the distance from Brisbane to Sydney. That's a big fecking circle IMO when your centre of your circle is over water).
You, Ben, craig adjust your calls, even up to 3 days before the event.... Cos that's weather......And that's fair enough.......And you're upset in a very minor adjustment to my 14 day hail mary???? lol.... we are still 9 days away from any hope... Lighten up mate... It's just a bit of fun.... But hey, I'll raise you if you like....
As far as w.a, I'm pretty sure I said I don't give 2 hoots about a td that wont produce surf, unless 2 foot storm crud around Broome is your go.... If I was interested in following this well documented W.A/N.T potential cyclone ( on most cyclone chasing sites), I'd be writing about it in the W.A thread..... But I'm just not interested.... If you think this system will be a decent swell producer. fire away..... The 2 potential storms I am hail marrying are more likely to produce waves of substance....
Now, most long term charts had "your system" up and running when you called it.... It was a given.... No risk.... I first put the hail mary out there on the 24/12.....
On the 27th, 8.36pm, you wrote " Talking about the same timeframe you're referring too and I don't think QLD will see a TC during this time. But I do think WA/NT will see one during this time. "
I read that as wa and/or Nt.... You didn't say the border..... WA and NT are HUUUUGE....
On the 27th, most gfs and access had a system forming somewhere around..... Guess where.... ;)
And seeings you got the calculator out, what is the km2 area of 144e - 160w x equator - 23s? I'm sure you'll find my circle quite small compared to the total cyclone region..
Now, Donny..... You have a top new year.... Had great fun laughing, arguing, and generally talking shit with you over the past year.....
Cheers SD. Same to you mate and keep up the good calls!!!
What's ya forecast for snow dumps in Japan from 20th-27th Jan!!! Make it as fecking good as ya TC calls will ya!!! ;)
Keen for a trip to Lady Elliot island.....any surf?
Happy new year, mate.... Yeah, there's waves.... Very fickle..... Mainly due to winds..... Awesome diving....
Happy New Year all.
I dips me lid and raise a glass to the good, the bad and the Ugly calls of 2014.
Make 'em strong and make 'em early.
Back at ya' FR....... :)
I phoned up my mates and got them to draw this for donny....
Ha ha.
EC onboard now with something in the Gulf and New Cal areas, albeit, not TC status and a few days after your chart above SD.
Although EC ensemble less certain about the New Cal area and again a TD at best in the Gulf.
Any cyclone on north east coast is a bonus swell for us all if it doesn't happen waiting for the next one, but if it does it's party time