Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Nov 8 )

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small, weak S swell Tues, easing Wed
• Slight kick in NE windswell biggest Wed PM, leftovers Thurs AM
• Modest increase in S swell Thurs PM/ holding Fri AM before easing, with clean leftovers Fri PM
• Small kick in S swell Sat PM, with offshore winds
• Stronger S swell Sun/Mon with all day W winds
• Solid S swell Tues with offshore winds AM, tending S'ly PM

Recap

Surf over the weekend was close to f/cast expectations, if a fraction on the “cool” side. Saturday saw a mostly 3-4ft signal out of the E/ESE with N’ly winds that were lightest inshore early and plenty of options. Size held in through Sun morning in the 3ft+ range before ramping down in the a’noon. A weak S’ly change and small leftovers in the 2ft or under range has kicked the week off in an uninspiring fashion.  Extreme troughiness continues to be the dominant theme through the Tasman Sea and interior so lets dive in and make some sense of it.

This week (Nov 8-12)

Pressure gradients are weak across our main swell windows and through the region as an interior trough drifts NE and a weak, troughy area extends out into the Tasman sea, without creating much of a squeeze on a weak high pressure centre over New Zealand. That is creating a soft S’ly fetch adjacent to the NSW Central/South Coast through today and tomorrow  before wind swing N’ly again as another troughy/low forms E of Tasmania Thursday. This system is weaker, more compact and more mobile than modelled when we prepared Friday’s notes so the whole surf potential for this week now looks much more subdued.

So, the upshot is a few days of short period small surf, with tomorrow seeing surf in the 1-2ft range with an early S’ly component wind, possibly SW inshore early allowing for some babyfood options, before winds lay down and tend variable in the a’noon.

Wed sees more small surf, with pre-frontal NE winds increasing and tending NW through the a’noon. A local NE fetch forms during the day, which should see a modest increase in NE windswell, up into the 2ft+ range with the most size and best conditions later in the a’noon. Nothing amazing but offering up a few post-work side-winders at appropriate locations.

By Thursday compact low forms just to the East of Tasmania. Unlike other systems that have formed there this Spring, this low is much more compact and mobile, so swell producing potential is only modest. SW gales out of Bass Strait, form just in advance of a similar strength fetch around the SW flank of the low as it moves out into the Tasman. Thursday will see a window early of leftover NE windswell from overnight N’lies, cleaned up by a morning SW wind.

Those winds clock around quickly to the S then SE as a trough lingers off the Mid North Coast. South swell does pop up a few notches into the a’noon, into the 2ft range at most S facing beaches, 2-3ft on the Hunter but with those SE winds quality will be very low. 

Winds feeding into the trough and an advancing interior low are expected to provide straight E’ly onshore winds through Fri morning, which makes it hard to recommend anything other than sloppy leftover S swell from Thursday.  Fri a’noon has some potential for improving conditions. The interior low is expected to drift SE down towards the Victorian/NSW border near the Far South Coast. Depending on the timing that could see winds switch to the W/NW or even W late Fri a’noon, offering potential for some clean 2ft surf, mostly a mix of short period swell trains from the E’ly onshore fetch and some S swell from the low tracking away through Thurs. Check back Wed and we’ll update the prospects for this little window.

This weekend (Nov 13-14)

It’s quite an unusual f/cast for November. The large interior low exits the coast near Eden Sat morning , driving fresh W’ly winds along the Northern flank of the low north from Batemans Bay. These winds are then enhanced by a strong cold front pushing into the Tasman from the Southern Ocean during Sunday. 

So a weekend of mostly W’ly winds. What about swell? 

Not a great deal, unfortunately, although we need some wriggle room, depending on the position of the low as it moves off the Far South Coast.

Sat morning is likely to be small, with only residual S swell in the 1-2ft range on offer at S facing magnets. Tiny/flat elsewhere. A perfect day then to hit up the Swellnet Board Swap event at Freswater. A small bump up in size is possible in the a’noon, generated by a proximate fetch of SW/S winds along the Far South Coast as the low moves offshore. Keep expectations low for now, but there may be some 2ft+ sets on offer later Sat.

Sunday looks a better bet, with at least 2ft surf on offer through the day from the South, 2-3ft on the Hunter. If you can find a good bank, all day W’ly winds should provide some perfect textured babyfood for big boards and beginners.

Next week (Nov15) and beyond

Stronger S swell on the menu early next week; with Monday likely to see surf in the 2-3ft range, 3ft on the Hunter, with W’ly winds tending SW/S late in the day as the front pushes well into the Tasman.

The front comes with a broad fetch of winter-calibre SW/S winds which track NE from below Tasmania into the Tasman during Mon. This generates a much stronger pulse of S swell for Tuesday. We’ll need to see how the pattern plays out but at this stage we are looking at size in the 4-5ft range, bigger 4-6ft on the Hunter through Tuesday. High pressure moving into the Tasman at a more northerly latitude (off the NSW Central Coast) is likely to see light morning land breezes and winds tending NE through the a’noon. Pretty standard early Spring pattern.

Longer term and that high looks to be quite mobile, suggesting a brief spell of N’ly winds before another front pushes into the Tasman, with good odds for another round of S swell into late next week, the weekend of Nov 20/21. 

Obviously with such a long lead time, that scenario may be subject to serious revision.

Check back Wed, for a full update on that and more short term outcomes.