Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Nov 5 )

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Juicy ESE swell peaking Sat morning, with continuing NE winds, lightest early AM
• Leftover ESE swell Sun, easing further during the day with continuing NE winds, possibly tending variable in the PM
• Small S swell likely Tues next week, easing Wed
• Stronger S swell Thurs, easing Fri, with mod/fresh S'ly winds
• Surf potential for next weekend as trough/low forms in Tasman, stay tuned for revisions

Recap

Yesterday saw small, low period windswell in the 1-2ft range across the region, unremarkable in every way, with continuing NE winds. Surf has started out under-sized today, with more weak windswell in the 2ft range. Through the mid/late morning swell just to the south of East has started to fill in from a Cook Strait fetch. Quality waves were dependent on finding protection from NE winds and appropriate sandbanks.

This weekend (Nov 6-7)

Not a great deal to add to the weekend f/cast notes. The fetch out of Cook Strait, extending up past Taranaki Peninsula and into the Tasman sea looked good on ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes through Wed/Thurs, with areas of storm force winds embedded in a long fetch of severe gales to low end gales. With the buoys and observations already confirming the swell it’s only local winds we’ll be concerned with. 

Not much change to that f/cast either, with N to NE winds expected both days, lightest inshore early.

Expect 3-4ft surf through Sat with wave model data  showing the strongest phase of the swell through the lunch-time session. Wth big mid-morning new moon (spring) tides that will likely be a bigger factor in surf quality through Sat and Sun. 

A roll off on size is expected through the later part of Sat a’noon and that easing trend continues overnight and through Sun. That will leave us with leftover 3ft sets with surf easing further into the 2-3ft range during the day. There is a chance for wind to lay down through Sun a’noon as a trough drifts over the area. Keep your eyes on local wind obs through Sun PM with a chance for some fun peaks as the swell eases and wind lays down.

Next week (Nov8) and beyond

Extreme troughiness continues next week, so we’ll outline the basic pattern and be prepared for revisions when we come back in on Mon.

For now, a NW/SE angled trough line off the NSW Coast on Mon, brings a S’ly change through the day. It’s a weak area of troughy low pressure- featuring a couple of weak low centres- without much strength or duration in the S’ly winds that develop along the western flank of the trough line so it’s likely only worth a couple of feet of low quality S windswell through Tues/Wed. A few leftovers from the E/ESE through Mon morning will be worth a few 2ft sets, likely clean under morning NW winds.

Pressure gradients rapidly ease through Tues and Wed as the weak, elongated trough exits stage right, with more weak, troughy areas of low pressure expected to meander into the lower Tasman. That sees small, weak S swell through Tues, likely no bigger than 2ft at S facing beaches, easing into Wed, with a possible slight uptick in NE windswell as an approaching front ramps up N’ly winds adjacent to the NSW Central Coastline.  

Nothing major though, just a couple of feet at best so keep expectations very low for Tues and Wed.

Things get more juicy Thurs. A stronger low is expected to form off the Gippsland Coast as a front interacts with the areas of troughy low pressure, with areas of gales forming adjacent to Tasmania and extending up into the Central Tasman. That should see a rapid rise in S swell through Thursday with size building into the 3-5ft range, bigger 4-6ft on the Hunter by close of play. Quality will be affected by strong S’ly winds extending up the coast with the swell.

That swell source is expected to rapidly move away out of the swell window, leading to easing surf through Fri next week, with an extremely uncertain wind forecast.

The uncertainty hinges on the model divergence as we come to the end of next week. A trough line off the Far North Coast NSW is suggested by the EC model, with E’ly winds extending from sub-tropical NSW down to the Mid North Coast , feeding into an approaching inland low. Which may form another surface low somewhere off the Central Coast.

GFS model suggests a trough line off the South Coast, forming a surface low next weekend.

Both scenarios suggest surf, although with wildly differing wind regimes and areas of maximum swell generation.

Thus, it’s appropriate to take the model outputs with a grain of salt until we start to see some consistency in the trend. Hopefully that will be the case by the time we come back on Mon.

Until then, have a great weekend.