Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Oct 29 )

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Initial pulse of moderate S swell Sat, with S'ly winds (possibly SW early)
• Stronger S'ly pulse Sun, with S'ly winds easing and tending NE in the a'noon
• S'ly swell leftovers Mon with light winds AM
• NE windswell at low levels Tues, likely building a notch Wed/Thur as NE winds become established
• Small, flukey S swell pulse Wed at S facing magnets
• ESE swell on the cards for Fri/Sat next week, stay tuned for revisions

Recap

We’ve seen the last dregs of S swell fade away through Thursday with some 2ft surf across most of the region yesterday, bigger 3ft on the Hunter with generally light morning winds. Small amounts of marginal NE windswell are all thats on offer today, likely the smallest, weakest day so far this exceptional Spring. Sets are in the 1-2ft range, suitable for beginners, but lacking enough energy to get a shortboard going. Light N’ly winds are on offer, with winds now expected to tend SW through the later a’noon. 

This weekend (Oct 30-31)

No change to the headline feature this weekend: another robust low forming in a trough line East of Tasmania. It does seem to be running early, with gales to storm force winds now expected to occur out of Bass Strait (after laying waste the Surf Coast!) through the early afternoon and winds now tending SW through the evening in Southern NSW. 

That brings forwards a first pulse of S’ly swell along the NSW coast with size expected to ramp up quickly through the early morning hours tomorrow, with the swell front in the water at, or close to, first light in the region. Expect size in the 3-4ft at S facing beaches, bigger 4-5ft on the Hunter. Winds will be the biggest issue. Likely fresh SW for a spell early morning, possibly WSW in the Sydney Basin, before quickly veering fresh S’ly for the day. If you miss that early window, expect to sacrifice a lot of size to find a clean or semi-clean options.

The first Bass Strait pulse dies back later Sat, before the next pulse generated by SW gales around the western and south-western flank of the low fills in. These swell trains will overlap and it’s likely that the second pulse will fill in late Sat, especially on the South Coast/Illawarra, although again, S’ly winds will need to be worked around.

Sunday will have plenty of S swell on offer, and with severe gales around the low, quite a bit of period to work with. Multiple lows have now formed in this region just E of Tasmania this Spring and the signal has been very different across the region with select S facing beaches in the Sydney basin having really maxed out the size range from these swell sources. We’d expect size on Sun in the 6ft range at S facing beaches but with some longer period S swell trains in the water, it’s a heads up for some bigger sets at some of the more S focussed reefs in the region.

S’ly quarter winds are expected Sun morning but with High pressure quickly moving over the region, winds should drop out and tend to light E or even NE seabreezes in the a’noon, which opens up some of the more exposed S facing options. Possibility exists for a more NW to WNW flow on the South Coast through Sun morning. Again, if you can work with some tricky winds, there will be plenty of workable swell on offer through Sunday. 

Next week (Nov1) and beyond

We’ll be on the backside of the weekend’s S swell event on Mon 1/11, with the low having moved away quickly through Sat, leading to a fairly rapid roll-off in swell energy through Mon. Residual energy in the 3-4ft range Mon morning, bigger 4-5ft on the Hunter, will ease back through the day in size and consistency, with 2-3ft sets leftover at S facing beaches in the a’noon. High pressure in the Tasman will have migrated E, with the western flank of the high seeing a developing N’ly wind regime through Mon. 

With slow moving high pressure being reinforced by another high slipping into the lower Tasman, we’ve got a pretty effective blocking pattern in place for most of next week.

This is going to see a N to NE flow through Tues and Wed with mostly small NE windswell on offer. Models aren’t showing much strength or duration to the winds, so we’ll keep expectations pegged very low for now. Likely weak, onshore surf in the 1-2ft range through Tues/Wed.

There is a front and parent low whisking through the far Southern Tasman sea Sun/Mon, with a very zonal fetch. Swell models aren’t really interested in it, but period charts show the chance of a glancing blow from some longer period S swell late Tues/easing quickly into Wed. That has the potential for some 2-3ft sets at the most reliable S magnets during Tues a’noon, but it’s a flukey source so keep expectations low.

Don’t expect much for Thurs other than small NE windswell with more NE winds. 

Another trough exiting the coast , possibly off the Tasmanian or Gippsland coast may bring a S’ly change late Thur or Fri. Models seem to think a low forming in the trough will dissipate quickly, without being much of a swell source. 

Of more interest is a fetch out of Cook Strait expected to develop through Wed and dissipate Thurs, as a low pressure system slips down over the North Island from the sub-tropical South Pacific. We’re still seeing some model divergence over the strength of the fetch but based on current modelling we can expect to see some ESE mid period swell through Fri, possibly in the 3-4ft range, and holding into Sat.

Additionally there is the potential of some troughiness in the Central Tasman sea leading to increased windspeeds through a broad, weak wind field of SE/ESE winds through the end of next week, potentially adding to the background of ESE swell into next weekend.

With the long lead time and troughy/unstable pattern we’re still experiencing this Spring, we’ll need to flag it now and come back Mon and see how the pattern is shaping up.

For now, we’ve got some swell energy incoming this weekend.

Hope you can get some and have a great weekend.

Check back Mon for a fresh and full update.