Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Oct 27 )

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small S swell leftovers easing through Thurs, small NE windswell Fri
• Small initial pulse of S swell Sat, with S'ly winds
• Stronger S'ly pulse Sun, with S'ly winds easing
• S'ly swell leftovers Mon with good winds AM
• NE windswell at low levels Tues, likely building a notch Wed/Thur as NE winds become established
• Small, flukey S swell pulse Wed at S facing magnets

Recap

Strong S swell has been in the water since Mon, now on an easing trajectory. Like previous swells where low pressure has been slow moving near Tasmania there was massive difference in wave heights, with some spots seeing size in excess of 6ft through late Mon into Tuesday, while other notable S swell magnets like the Hunter were saw size in the 4-6ft range, late Mon into Tuesday. Size has moderated today with most S exposed beaches in the region seeing easing 3ft surf, bigger 3-4ft on the Hunter. Conditions were OK, with a light morning variable breeze which ranged from NW to SSW to light SE and is now tending to freshening NE seabreezes.

This week (Oct 27-29)

The slow moving low East of Tasmania which supplied Mon/Tues strong S swell has now dissipated, with weak high pressure moving NE into the sub-tropical Tasman Sea and a complex area of low pressure beginning to track across the WA/SA interior towards the Eastern States. Eventually the inland low pressure system tracks into the Tasman, and with an associated front forms a low in the active window E of Tasmania overnight Fri/early Saturday.

For now though, the interplay between the approaching low system and high in the Northern Tasman is setting up a N’ly flow which will take us through the to end of the working week. 

Small amounts of leftover S swell supply a few stray 2ft sets at S facing beaches tomorrow, possibly 2-3ft on the Hunter but you’ll need to get in early before N’ly winds freshen and tend NE through the a’noon.

Friday looks very average with only small amounts of NE windswell on offer. Likely in the 1-2ft range. A late shift in winds from the N to NW may supply a marginal improvement in quality if you are chasing a go out to end the working week but keep expectations low and bring a good groveller to the beach. It’s weak, short period windswell at best. 

This weekend (Oct 30-31)

Looks like the timing of the low evolution has been brought forwards. Models now show gales exiting Bass Strait by Fri evening or even afternoon. That is expected to produce a first flush of S swell likely arriving mid morning on the Illawarra, late morning/lunchtime in Sydney, with size in the 2-3ft range. Bigger 3ft+ when it arrives on the Hunter. 

Winds don’t look great though. The low moves SE quite quickly overnight Fri and into Sat, with a ridge quickly building in behind the S’ly change expected early Sat morning, with winds tending quickly SSE behind the change. Thus, expect wind affected 3-4ft surf at S facing beaches through Sat. Much smaller surf at more protected locations.

Saturdays pulse eases back Sun morning before the stronger, longer period surf generated by gale to severe gale SW winds around the low makes landfall. That longer period pulse should be significantly bigger than the original Bass Strait pulse and lift wave heights up into the 3-5ft range at S facing beaches in the region, bigger 5-6ft on the Hunter through the a’noon. Winds don’t look great with the initial high pressure ridge still holding S/SSE winds but through the day the high cell moves over Central NSW, suggesting a weak, onshore flow. If you can deal with the bump or find somewhere semi-sheltered there’ll be plenty of surf on offer, albeit of mixed quality. 

Next week (Nov1) and beyond

Compared to Mon’s f/cast notes the weekend low pressure system ducks away to the SE more quickly, leading to a faster roll off in swell energy through Mon 1/11. Residual swell in the 3ft range at S facing beaches, bigger 4ft on the Hunter will ease and quite quickly during the day. High pressure sets up in the Central Tasman and sets up a N’ly flow through Mon, so the best bet is early with a morning NW flow likely.

NE winds are expected to increase through Tues, bringing a slight increase in NE windswell, likely larger through Wed/Thurs. It’s a flukey fetch quite likely to generate 2-3ft surf through Thurs but we’ll need to see how the pattern shapes up before making any final calls on it.

The Southern Ocean storm track is suppressed by the blocking high in the Tasman but a system tracking well to the south late Sun/Mon, although unfavourably aligned and pushed SW away from the Tasman sea is likely to be strong enough for some long period S swell trains to bend back into the NSW coast during late Wed. Again, flukey source and only at the most reliable S swell magnets, likely worth a few 2-3ft sets through Wed, easing to leftovers Thurs. Certainly not a reliable swell source.

Into the end of next week and models have been toying with low pressure near the North Island, now likely occurring in the swell shadow of the North Island. That system may drift southwards and develop a fetch either out of Cook Strait or adjacent to the North Island, late next week. That offers potential for a SE/ESE swell into next week, first weekend of November. At least one major model also suggests a NE/SW angled trough just off the NSW coast by the end of next week. 

With the current level of instability and troughiness those outcomes are subject to very low confidence. 

Check back Fri and we’ll have a look at it again as well as run a ruler over the weekend outlook.

See you then.