Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Oct 18 )

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Window of clean conditions Tues AM, before winds tend S and freshen
• Mix of S swell trains Wed, with SW to S winds
• S swell easing Thurs as fun swell from the ESE swell builds in and S'ly winds begin to ease
• Fun-sized ESE/E swell Fri with good winds
• Mix of E and ENE swell Sat with window of good winds
• Stronger ENE swell Sun, with fresh S'ly winds developing and S'ly windswell building
• Strong S swell likely late Mon, peaking Tues, slowly easing next week

Recap

Small waves and clean conditions were on offer Saturday as the last of the NE swell dribbled away under light winds. New S swell filled in through Sun, with early 3-4ft surf on the Hunter, and smaller 3ft surf at S facing beaches elsewhere. Size built through the a’noon as longer period swell filled in but onshore winds scuffed it up and quality was below par. Solid 6ft sets were reported in Syd, with even bigger 8-10ft sets on certain S exposed reefs through Sun a'noon.

Plenty of S swell on the menu today, with chunky 4ft surf on the Hunter, and some bigger 4-6ft S swell reported from S facing beaches in Sydney. Conditions were favourable with a morning land breeze grooming incoming swells. Another active, dynamic Spring week is ahead. Let’s get into it.

This week (Oct 18-22)

South swell is on the way down now, with clean leftovers in the 2-3ft range at S facing beaches through tomorrow morning under a morning WNW to NW flow.

From there we see a large, southwards located high and multiple troughs located in the Tasman sea and inland become the dominant synoptic features for the week. This is going to set-up some tricky, short-lived fetches as well as another week of multiple wind changes. Timing the changes is probably the key feature to scoring some fun waves this week.

A stiff S’ly charge works it’s way up the coast tomorrow, likely across the South Coast in the morning and into the Sydney basin around lunch-time. A small amount of short range S’ly windswell is likely to build in the wake of the change but you’ll need to be keen as conditions will be wooly. A small amount of longer period S swell will be in the mix, but with fresh S'ly winds expected it's unlikely the stray 2ft sets will be workable anywhere.

Wednesday is a slightly better bet, as a trough just in advance of the change, forms a small surface low overnight Tuesday, dragging a more SW flow through the Jervis Bay to Hunter region. Short range S to SSE swell bumps a notch into the 3ft range, although the S’ly component winds will scuff up the more exposed S facing beaches. Semi-clean options might require a small size sacrifice.

The small low in the Tasman aims up ESE/SE winds at the Central NSW coast later this week. This fetch isn’t particularly strong, mostly strong winds, and it’s quite mobile so swell generating potential is constrained under current modelling. Nonetheless we should see swell clock around to the SE/ESE through Thursday, with a mix of S swell trains dropping out as the more E’ly component swells fill in. Size won’t be anything dramatic, with 3ft sets, bigger 3-4ft on the South Coast, and S’ly winds remain through Thurs, though easing through the a’noon. That should offer some semi-clean options if you can hunt around.

Friday looks to be the best bet of the week as local wind gradients ease right back, offering up light land and seabreezes through the day. The Tasman low should maintain 3-4ft of mid period E/ESE swell, offering up plenty of options on the beachbreaks. 

This weekend (Oct 23-24)

Game of two halves this weekend. While the small Tasman low chugs away a more distant trough in the South Pacific deepens later this week, energising a fetch of E/ENE winds north of the North Island. Compared to model runs on Fri, this fetch is more mobile and not quite as strong under current modelling, so we will see reduced swell potential this weekend. 

Swell from this more distant fetch should overlap with more proximate E’ly swell trains through Sat with size expected to maintain pulsey 3ft surf, with the odd 4ft set on open stretches. Looks like light N’ly winds then tend W’ly as an approaching trough and front impact the region. We may have to finesse those winds as the week move on.

Sunday sees more swell from the ENE, probably the peak from that source but a strong front and deepening trough is expected to bring a strong S’ly change and possibly rapid rise in local S swell, which may overshadow the more distant ENE swell source. Sunday is a dynamic day, so expect revisions. At this stage we’re looking at 3-4ft surf from the ENE, with a rising S swell trend through the a’noon. Freshening SW/S winds are on the radar. 

Next week (Oct 25) and beyond

We’re looking at great prospects for solid S swell early next week beginning 25/10. The trough deepens to a low and is reinforced by a deeper southern fetch as a cold front joins the party. Timing of this swell is still a bit uncertain but by later Mon it’s likely to be propagating northwards along the coast, potentially seeing wave heights build quickly by close of play. 

If not by late Mon, Tuesday should see plenty of strong S swell, likely in the 6ft range at S facing beaches, 6-8ft on the Hunter. With the long lead time those calls are likely to subject to revision.

Further ahead and models show the low lingering in the Tasman as it slowly weakens. Thats suggests a long tail of slowly easing S swell through the middle to later part of next week with conditions improving as the low moves away and local pressure gradients ease. Another active Spring week ahead.

Check back Wed for a full update.