Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by James Casey (issued Friday 18th June)

Best Days: Solid S spike of S swell for tomorrow (Saturday), reinforcing SE swell for Monday

Outlook (tl;dr)

• Solid S swell for the weekend reaching a peak on Saturday after midday up around 8-10ft mark. Unfortunately it comes with strong SW winds so southern corners will be the pick. 
• Sunday will still be solid up around 6ft+ early and with the angle a little more S/SE but with S/SW winds tending S/SE late
• Reinforcement of SE swell on Monday with waves up around 4-6ft easing to 3-4ft on Tuesday 
• A final pulse of SE swell around the 3ft mark on Wednesday morning before the swells eases below 2-3ft. Winds will be out of the NW early tending more NE as the day goes on.

Recap

Yesterday was tiny with the odd 1-2ft set. It was best early. Fresh westerly winds kept things groomed. 

Today is looking better with a close range south swell building ahead of a larger spike due tomorrow. Waves are in that 2-3ft range this morning with moderate W/NW winds. 

Into the weekend

Expect the south swell to build to the 3-4ft mark this afternoon and the wind to build and swing to the W/SW this afternoon.

Now what about the southwestern flank of this Tasman low. This will provide the largest swell for the next week. Since my update on Wednesday it looks like the peak will be much the same but either side of this spike it won’t be quite as large. 

The Tasman low really will intensify tonight as the southwestern flank of the low strengthens and broadens with gale-force S/SE winds surging up the coast into Saturday. This will bring a quick rise in swell heights overnight and into tomorrow with a peak after midday tomorrow around the 8-10ft mark. 

There will be gusty winds out of the W/SW early tomorrow (Saturday) becoming stronger and more SW as the day goes on. This will restrict most surfable options to southern corners where it won’t be seeing quite as much of the size.

Sunday evening we will see the swell backing off but it’ll still be up around 6ft+ mark early but it will ease to 4-6ft by the afternoon. It will have a bit more S/SE in it too so southern corners should be getting a better percentage of the size than was seen on Saturday. Winds will be a bit lighter but still S/SW early and shifting around to the S/SE by the evening. These winds will mean another day in the protected southern corners for the cleanest conditions. 

Next week 

The pulse of SE swell on Monday is still looking decent although it has been downgraded a little so it looks like it’ll keep wave heights up around the 4-6ft mark early easing to the 4ft by the afternoon. This pulse will come from a strong fetch of SE winds west of NZ’s South Island as a ridge squeezes the isobars of the low.

Winds look to be lighter but more S/SE than over the weekend meaning it’ll be bumpier. Select locations should see morning S/SW-SW windows, though most likely on the Northern Beaches. Southern corners will again be the pick and with the swell a bit more SE there should be more of the swell getting in.

The swell will ease to 3-4ft by Tuesday as the run of swell slowly starts to ease into Tuesday afternoon. Winds will be lighter and SW early before easing and tending more E/SE into the afternoon. 

One final pulse of SE swell looks to arrive early on Wednesday morning thanks to a little fetch of winds off the southwestern tip of NZ’s South Island. I’d expect waves around the 3ft mark early before easing into the afternoon. 

Winds look to be out of the NW early before swinging around to the NE and strengthening into the afternoon. 

Further ahead there looks to be an infeed of northerlies creating a little windswell ahead of a series of mid latitude lows moving in from the west. There also looks to be a solid S groundswell thanks to a ridge in the Southern Ocean. That’s all a fair way out so we’ll unpack it at the beginning of next week.