Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by James Casey (issued Friday 2nd April)

Best Days: Small clean fun over the long weekend, windier and more complex later in the week. 

Outlook:

• Small waves on the weekend, cleanest early
• Small E/NE swell from low in Coral Sea and S groundswell combining early next week
• Large, choppy E/NE swell peaking late next week 
• The best window for waves will be as the low moves out to sea bringing offshore winds and cleaner conditions 

Recap

Yesterday morning was super nice with light offshore winds and a lingering 2ft swell with the odd bigger set, there were some quality waves on offer. The high tide certainly slowed things down around the middle of the day before the onshore afternoon seabreeze made it a little less appealing. 

This morning we have a bit less energy in the water with waves more out of the E than SE. Conditions are nice and clean with calm offshore winds. Sets are in that 1-2ft range so bigger boards are necessary and really best for beginners. The high tide will slow it down even further. 

Into the long weekend

The weekend is going to be small. Without any decent additional source of swell we will be relying on the 1-2ft E swell. Both Saturday and Sunday are looking similar with winds light and offshore in the morning and a NE seabreeze set to puff up in the afternoon. 

A long range S swell looks unlikely for Monday but will combine with a small E/NE swell filling in on Monday while a weak S change pushes up the coast. 

The wind will start out SW in the morning for the Illawarra and Sydney, lighter and more W for Newcastle, and then tending more SE as the day goes on.

The long range S swell will be whipped up to the S and W of Tassie earlier in the weekend. It will be flukey at best with winds initially looking too zonal. There’ll be something for the Hunter, an inconsistent 2ft, but otherwise not much until later in the week.

The E/NE swell will be generated from a tropical low forming in the Coral Sea and drifting south, squeezing a high in the Tasman. I wouldn’t expect much size on Monday, 2ft at most, but more later in the week. 

The new week

By Tuesday I’d expect to see a bit more swell out of the S as slightly better aimed winds in the Southern Ocean provide more swell for our coast. It’ll be 2-3ft at south facing beaches on Tuesday, pushing 3-4ft across the Hunter. 

At the same time the E/NE swell will build with 2ft sets building throughout the day, filling in the longer lulls under the flukey S swell.

Unfortunately winds are looking fairly ordinary for Tuesday with an E/SE flow making it lumpy to bumpy for most of the day. 

It gets a bit more complex from Wednesday onwards as the low from up in the Coral Sea begins to drift south and become a Tasman Low. There is still a fair bit of disagreement in the models but there are signs of a large and windy peak in the E/NE swell around Thursday/Friday. It’s till looking dicey but I’d be surprised if we don’t get waves up around the 4-6ft mark depending on how intense the low gets. Regardless the peak will get messy, chopped up conditions so it’s not looking great. 

Winds will swing offshore and smooth things out later in the week as the low moves offshore but it isn’t clear exactly when that will happen just yet. It looks to be around the start of the weekend.

Let’s keep our eyes on it as it develops and tune in for the Monday update.