Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by James Casey (issued Monday 29th March)

Best Days: Thursday and Friday early

Outlook:

• Tuesday S pulse of swell but with moderate to fresh S/SE winds continuing into Wednesday
• Better winds early with easing S swell on Thursday and Friday
• Smaller on the weekend
• Potential for E/NE swell from low in Coral Sea and S groundswell combining early next week 

Recap

Well what a fun weekend of waves, 2-3ft waves out of the E/SE on Saturday and smaller, more like 2ft on Sunday. Light offshore winds created nice clean conditions both Saturday and Sunday before afternoon sea breezes made it a little lumpy for the afternoon sessions. The morning high tide certainly slowed things down a bit for some places.

The water quality began to clean up as the weekend went on with less debris out there but it was still a bit murky. 

This morning the swell was a bit smaller but still 2-3ft on the sets and a bit smaller between sets but again beautiful small wave conditions. The high tide slowed things down mid morning. Light offshore winds will tend S then SE and strengthen late in the day. 

This week

Well as the E/SE swell fades a new mid period S swell will move in on Tuesday morning. 

Winds will be stronger than they have been the last few days with fresh SW winds early tending S/SE later in the day. 

This new swell is being generated by a front, trough and low squeezing a ridge to the east of Tassie. It is creating persistent strong winds aimed towards our coastline with 3-4ft waves out of the S expected.  

The swell looks to peak on Tuesday afternoon around the 3ft mark and linger around the same height on Wednesday before easing into the end of the week. 

Unfortunately with the low moving north and east towards NZ, stronger S winds will accompany the peak in the swell on Tuesday and Wednesday. This means you’ll need to stick to the southern corners where less of the swell will wrap in.

Winds will be noticeably lighter on Thursday as the low moves over NZ and a region of high pressure moves over the coast. Expect light and offshore winds earlier in the day before winds swing and build out of the NE late in the day. This means you’ll be able to make the most of the easing swell on Thursday at the S swell magnets. 

The swell will be a fair bit smaller on Friday and more out of the E/SE but with light NW winds early there’ll still be some OK 2-3ft waves around.

The Weekend 

It’s a fairly lacklustre weekend with lingering S and SE swells but it’ll only be small. 

Both Saturday and Sunday  will have the odd 2ft set, best in the morning with NW winds freshening out of the NE in the afternoon.

The new week

It’s not looking like a great longer range forecast but there is potential. A tropical low is set to form in the Coral Sea and drift south, squeezing a high in the Tasman producing small levels of E/NE trade swell for most the week. 

There is even the potential for more size should the low drift south enough into our swell window. 

There is also a potential for some S groundswell as a strong frontal progression pushes under Tassie from Sunday.

With this mix of E/NE and S groundswell we should have 2-3ft waves, a bit bigger for the Hunter up around 3-4ft.

Conditions aren’t looking great at this stage for the start of the week as a S change moves up the coast on Monday and brings S winds, more SW in the morning and more SE in the afternoon. 

We’ll be keeping an eye on the low in the Coral Sea and the progression of the S groundswells. Tune in on Wednesday for an update.