Remaining strong from the S/SE, though easing
Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 20th January)
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Large, easing swells Thurs onwards
- Light winds before lunch Thurs, briefly Fri AM
- Fun weekend of waves though a little wind affected Sun
- Lots of tropical potential long term
Recap: Well, it’s been an interesting couple of days to say the least. On the whole, a major under-performance from the expected south swell, both in arrival (not reaching the South Coast until late Tuesday, overnight in Sydney) and also in size, with many coasts coming in significantly smaller than forecast. However we’ve had intermittent reports throughout the day - seemingly without any kind of obvious pattern or geographical trend - of bigger surf reaching 6-8ft at some locations (and bigger surf at offshore bombies), but it’s fair to say that broadly speaking, we haven’t seen anything near what was expected. Of course, the big question is why? Ususally, when hindcasting major non-events, it’s possible to see gaps in the forecast methodology, and areas where (perhaps) general assumptions glossed over important characteristics that - with 20/20 vision - resulted in an erroneous forecast. However this event is unusual, in that given the opportunity to forecast again, I probably wouldn't deviate much from the previous script. This swell was first noted in these notes nine days ago, and the models held very consistently throughout, so confidence was high - finally validated in the ASCAT satellite pass that confirmed the size and strength of the storm. However, we have a few ideas as to what went wrong - but, such analysis is better left to an individual report, which we’ll try to prepare in the coming week.
This week (Jan 21 - 22)
One of the difficulties in preparing a forecast at a time like this, is trying to seperate the events of the last 24 hours from what’s expected over the coming days.
Although we’re in the midst of a tricky, week-long cycle of solid, overlapping southerly swells, today’s under performance doesn’t necessarily have a bearing on the swell potential from the latter stages of the same parent low, as it maintains strength off the SW tip of New Zealand’s South Island. Of course, confidence may be somewhat diminished - but we shouldn’t necessarily downgrade the next two days proportionate to what occurred (or more accurately, didn’t occur) today.
And, as it were, Thursday and Friday were both meant to offer the better waves of this event anyway (the exact phrase in Monday’s notes was “The backside of this swell looks the pick anyway”, and last Friday’s notes said “In many ways, despite the easing trend, Thursday and Friday may end up offering the best quality swell energy of the whole period”).
So, what can we expect?
Firstly, surface conditions will be a heck of a lot better. A high pressure system will move across the region, bringing light variable winds for most of Thursday ahead of afternoon sea breezes from the NE. Friday will see persistent moderate to fresh N’ly tending N/NE winds as a Tasman high strengthens a little, but there’ll be a window of light N/NW winds early morning, offering the best conditions of the day (get in as early as you can).
As for surf, we’ll see the swell direction slowly swing to the S/SE. Model guidance has an easing trend from today into tomorrow, but I'm ignoring the initial trend because the energy from the next few days will be sourced from two new regions - the migratory path of the low across the Southern Tasman Sea, as well as some sideband S/SE groundswell from the core of the low off the NZ coast today (see below).
Although the low is now not aimed ideally within our swell window, the sheer length and breadth of the fetch - plus the strength of the core winds - should allow for 5-6ft sets throughout Thursday (bigger at offshore bombies and across the Hunter region, near 6-8ft), though as per usual surf size will be a lot smaller at beaches not open to the south.
We usually allow 36-48 hours travel time from these kinds of systems in this neck of the woods, so given the current fetch was active as of this morning, strong sideband S/SE energy should persist into the early hours of Friday morning. A brief window of light N/NW winds on Friday should be accompanied with occasional 4-6ft sets at south facing beaches (bigger across the Hunter around 5-6ft+), easing steadily to 3-4ft through the day, but with much smaller options elsewhere as per the usual directional caveats.
Yes, this is bigger than the model is estimating, but it's a common occurence with cut-off lows in the south-east Tasman, so I'm reasonably confident we'll see strong - though increasingly inconsistent - surf for the enxt two days.
Expect conditions to become bumpy through Friday afternoon at beaches without protection from the north. There’ll also be some building NE windswell through the day too, though no major size is expected.
This weekend (Jan 23 - 24)
There’s no change to the weekend outlook.
Though, I gotta say - an acute source of long period south swell for Sunday - from a poorly aligned low southwest of Tasmania from tomorrow onwards - is way more flukier than the source that generated today’s energy. So, let’s just say this won’t be a high confidence event.
Nevertheless, Saturday’s on track for easing S/SE energy from today, with inconsistent 2-3ft+ sets at south facing beaches, smaller elsewhere, and easing through the day. A small NE windswell should maintain peaky 2-3ft sets at exposed north-facing beaches.
Local conditions look pretty good with a weak trough disrupting Friday’s synoptic northerly flow, in fact there’s a risk of a brief S’ly airstream on the South Coast - and then a late redeveloping NE breeze north from the Illawarra. But for the most part winds should be light and variable.
Sunday’s looking windy with the N/NE breeze restrengthening as the trough moves south, and this should build peaky NE windswell into the 3ft range. Additionally, the aforementioned long period S’ly swell is expected to make landfall, and south facing beaches should see inconsistent 3ft sets, with an outside chance for a handful of reliable south swell magnets (such as the Hunter) picking up bigger waves in the 3-5ft range.
The blend of swells should create some nice A-frame up and down the coast but local conditions are looking a little average at this stage. I’ll take a closer look on Friday.
Next week (Jan 25 onwards)
The deep Southern Ocean low responsible for Sunday’s swell will migrate very slowly eastwards through our south swell window, so it’s looking like we’ll pick up fluctuating levels of small long period S’ly tending S/SE swell through the first half of next week. At this stage Monday and Tuesday could both see intermittent 3ft sets at south facing beaches.
Additionally, the N/NE fetch immediately off the coast on Sunday will remain in place for a few days so we’ll concurrently see small levels of local NE windswell too (2ft, maybe 3ft). Though, conditions will be at risk of the associated N/NE winds.
Otherwise, the long term outlook is still looking very positive from a tropical point of view, with broadening trades through the weekend and into next week (generating small though building E/NE swells), and the evolution of a a tropical low in the central/northern Tasman Sea during the first half of next week that has the potential for a significant E/NE groundswell during the middle to latter part of next week.
Quite a dynamic summer, eh?
See you Friday!
Comments
So not offshore tomorrow morning in Sydney (nth beaches)? I recall variable means onshore
Hi Ben, for what it's worth, my observations.
Saturday, solid 3' occasionally bigger at maroubra, gorgeous offshore swell. Sunday morning cam pics from you show solid 4' on canny coast, I arrived Sunday arvo and it had gone, 2-3' wind swell. Monday and Tuesday messy and nothing significant really showing. Wednesday arvo sizable but messy, not groundswell but a few rogue waves, not sets. Wednesday arvo around 4.00 pm, more solid swell starts to show. 3-4' at North east facing break, but on dusk it seems to have dropped a bit and doesn't have the push of a few hours ago.
Mind bending trying to work it all out. So far the Saturday morning swell was most groundswell like. I can't work that out given the synoptic and the forecasts.
Love to read a hindcast report if you're up for it.
Poo poo
I remember a similar event a couple of years ago. Two in fact. One forecast had Long Reef car park FULL at dawn with guys waxing up their guns and the swell was tiny. I remember Fiji did receive big swell though. Another time saw the Bower in a similar situation. Big nor east swell hyped up (strongly forecasted), didn’t arrive. Personally, I embrace the mystery. It’s nice to have some fucken mystery as there is a jet ski towing every fucking kook and his son/daughter/semi sponsored nephew into every fucken lump of swell over 3 foot these days. Fucken kooks. READ THIS AND WEEP YA KOOKS!! CONFESS TO YOUR WIVES, MOTHERS, MATES FROM THE PUB THAT YOURE A KOOK!!!
Love the mystery Billie. Still haven’t got my head around this one, probably never will. Absolutely pumped here for about 8 hours. This morning it’s mostly gone, down to maybe a third of yesterday arvo’s size.
What Billie said!!! CONFESS
As per my thoughts yesterday and the article here.. https://www.swellnet.com/news/swellnet-analysis/2018/05/17/analysis-the-...
My hypothesis yesterday is that we saw the interaction of the long-period swell energy with the shelf and offshore bathymetry. This either focussed the energy away from the southern NSW coast, or absorbed it or only funnelled it to a few select spots. Ie not an even spread of size.
Later yesterday and this morning with the period easing back a little we've seen the swell spread in much more evenly, more consistent and into a wider spread of locations as the bathymetry effects are negated to an extent.
Weird how some of these swells play out. Yesterday arvo on the Mid North Coast it was solid, pushing 8ft, despite being further from the swell source. Wave buoys show Coffs actually had the biggest swell.
Coffs buoy is offline, as is Byron.
Not on the MHL site unless it has just dropped out? Hs peaked yesterday at Coffs just under 4m?
"The Coffs Harbour Waverider buoy went adrift on 12 November and is yet to be recovered. On 26 November it was located approximately 120 km east of Ulladulla. MHL is monitoring the drifting buoy and will attempt recovery if it moves close to the coast."
They have to be anchored to the bottom to work don’t they? So how come there is data shown for Coffs ? Or is this data from out the middle of the Tasman?
https://www.mhl.nsw.gov.au/Station-COFHOW
Actually, many of the buoys communicate via satellite. So even if they come adrift, they can be tracked. Craig wrote this article back in early December regarding this specific incident with the Coffs buoy.
https://www.swellnet.com/news/swellnet-analysis/2020/12/04/coffs-castaway
Hmmm... just checked, and you're correct - data is now showing - though with the 'offline' message still at the top.
Data only goes back to 4pm on 20th Jan though (yesterday afternoon), which suggests to me they have only recently re-reployed it. There was certainly no data showing yesterday! All other MHL buoys display a week's worth of data which confirms the likehood that it's only just been reactivated.
Great timing, this is a very useful buoy.
Stacked, strong and beautiful looking lines of 6ft groundswell this AM. Consistent as well, if only we had better setups on the NB to handle it.
Couple bigger than that out there too. Few spots pretty damn good if you know where to look.
Bastard of a paddle out where I was though - Breaking a long way out, consistent and the whitewater lines just weren't dissipating - lot of paddling through deep foam.
Worth it though.
Yesterday evening the waves emerged from the chrysalis, late but very welcome. Last hour before dark was incredible with direction, size, tide, and wind coming together - crowd factor too. Caught and also saw some amazing waves.
Today it's slowed up a touch but still a damn fine midsummer morning.
Seemed like where i was on the south coast that there was even more punch in the water this AM than late yesterday
Can confirm 10-15ft waves were had today
Wow. Get some shots?
I'm guessing a south coast reef somewhere?
south of Jervis Lance?
Bombie action.
Oh my.
Bondi very solid from about 9am today. Still booming through. 8ft plus, I'd say easily.
Clean up!
Scored ********** today 4ft only 10 out .. unbelievable rides clean offshore.. massive paddle but easily the best waves I’ve surfed in years.. stoked
Looked 8ft sets on the northern Cenny this evening... watched 2 guys try paddle out the beachie, getting 50m out (another 300 to go) going nowhere for 10mins then catching whitewater in...
Have to say the biggest it was today was after lunch on a Central Coast reef, 10-12ft maybe bigger clean ups, out with only 4 others, absolutely mental feeling for an east coast summer. One of my most memorable sessions.
********** Wong?? I watched it for a while.. it was absolutely pumping.. 10ft easy
Who the fuck drops specific locations these days, Serious mate ? 4 guys? Im assuming your not surfing the same location tomorrow seeing your so openly willing to talk it up for all to see
I agree.. wtf !
Not cryptic enough? Oh well see you out there tomorrow .
dynamic
Can confirm that the morning on central coast was quite manageable, by midday it went crazy (tides) and for all afternoon it was crazy. Northern part of central coast basically unsurfable. I checked ‘em all up here and nobody was out. Open ocean bombies were doing things I haven’t seen before.
But still, it looked like a cross between storm surf and ground swell. It wasn’t proper ground swell as I know it. Disorganised, peaky, not in clear sets with numbers of waves.
So weird. Hard even to hindcast. Seems to have dropped off a bit this evening, hoping for something surfable tomorrow a.m.
Today was epic solid in the morning then got big in the arvo, bommie around botany bay were goin off !!
One for the books
North coast sucks cant handle a swell over 6ft thank god I live in Cronulla.
I will return to the shire.
Glad I don’t
Not sure what you're on about Evo.
I never saw a wave over 6ft this swell.
three spots within 10 minutes of me that can handle 10ft S swells.
this was just a shitty swell for here, that never quite filled in and came with bad winds and no banks.
How's the legends on here naming the exact break they surfed, how it was pumping and boasting about low crowd numbers!
WHY WHY WHY?????
VAL paradise up north?
Yeah, don't quite understand it. Good to gloat but no need to name where, especially if not busy.
Are you able to remove the comments Craig? Would be good to get the names down if possible.
yeah thankfully been edited now. unbelievable
Waiting for a pulse that never came.
back to 3ft today, with some random 4footers.
never quite cleaned up either.
oh, well.
been interesting going back and comparing this fetch with the other classic Cloudbreak fetches of Sep 2010, July 2011, June 2012 and May 2018.
Some of which supplied awesome surf here and some of which didn't.
freeride those numbers were nuts even with the windswell mucking them up the buoys held 3.3m at 16 secs peaking 3.7m (Crowdy Head MHL ). I'm surprised Lennox didn't pop (if not fetch must be angle) as it went more SSE last night and was the better swell for mid North as it accessed all areas.
Incredible, but strange, swell.
Hoping for a head start on Tuesday, checked it a few times but it was caca til the end.
Piled four boards up to 7'6" into the wagon early Wednesday and wondered about the lack of sound from the east. Dark carpark, empty but for two cars, the two Phils, both asking where the fuck the swell is when I got out. Rubbish session in the morning, respectable session at midday, incredible session in the evening when it all came together, and fortunately enough, the crowd totally cleared out. Amazing waves, best since August last year.
Thursday morning saw a drop in energy but still very distinct lines, and with slack wind and good tide, made for a reduced version of the evening prior. Competitive lineup, unleash your inner mongrel if you want a set or GTFO. Growled into a few then called it quits. Swell started jacking again, however the wind howled NE from mid-morning so I took the young fella to a south facing beach late in the day for a muck around on the inside, while outside strong lines of swell were manhandled by guys and gals on long equipment.
Heard many 'big as it gets' stories and others that are middling at best. The photos are starting to trickle in as evidence.
Late and disorderly, though ultimately the expected places pumped.
Have edited a couple of comments re locations. While not secret spots it's always best to be discrete with these things.
thanks craig. good work
Cheers Craig
Sounds like old mate had a good sesh there in any case
Interesting to read the comments on how the swell acted as it passed me in Eastern Vic. The swell was biggest down here on Thursday morning and faded slowly, with intermittent pulses, through the day.
It was a strange swell though. Lots of the more "consistent" spots weren't working but one spot that almost never works was excellent.
Hey carpetman, great part of the world down there. I'm based on the lower south coast. You're probably already across this but from time-to-time I also use the St Helens reports and notes for a point of contrast :-)
Photos coming in from all the nooks and crannies across the southern NSW coast as well as the maxing offshore reefs are sick.
sounds like south coast bommies got the best of it eh Craig?
Ummmmm.....not quite mate.
First wave back in the water yesterday for mine . Sat in pole position and watched a SUP rider stroke from the end of the wave all the way out the back just in time to drop straight in on me on a rolling waist high wavelet . Watching the nose of his waterborne behemoth swivelling next to my face for twenty metres as I tried to get to my feet using one hand. I finally surfed clear of him and waited patiently for him to pull off , all the while expecting him to careen his log into me and shatter my shin bones. Got tired of waiting and used my good hand to push him off balance and he fell off. Surfed till the end of the wave and paddled back out whilst he waited for me and asked me what I thought I was doing. I told him I was done sharing with him and decided it was time for him to let me surf my waves in peace .
He said I didn’t have a good grasp of surf etiquette.
I looked up at him standing on his log with his completely hairless, shaved gym pig body , lines of script tattooed over his rib cage and couldn’t help but give him an honest appraisal of his act. He told me if I came near him again he’d hit me with his stick.
He called his paddle a stick. I repeat- He called his paddle a stick.
So yeah .....looks like the good times weren’t confined to those South Coast bombies. Those joints are for losers !
hahahahahah.
What was your honest appraisal Blowin?? :)
Pretty much that. Hairless gym pig dangerous clown.
Ashamed to say I pulled the local card . The actual locals would certainly spill their beers if they caught word of that .
One thing I’ve learnt about the Adult learner kook is that the point of wave etiquette has no gravity in their equal opportunity / entitled mindset but they are forced through the conditioning of modern society to cede to anything couched in terms of safety .
They’ll smirk and dismiss valid claims of wave rights but will go to water if you suggest they’re invading your safe space. It’s a useful little psychological nut kick when they need it .
Fair play to you.
As shown on Insta (
), there's a bit of a holiday crew in northern NSW at the moment.And if you listen closely during that vid, you can hear the muted chuckle of certain Swellnet contributor.
That notwithstanding, etiquette at my local this morning was surprisingly good, and that warm, blue water was epic.
Have already chuckled at that , which virtually guarantees I’ll be the one pinballing around some jump off rocks in the near future.
it's good to get perspective.
I've surfed every day this summer pretty much, between mostly shitty, brown water beachies and ultra-crowded pass and had a ball, by and large. frothed out son, zero expectations.
this swell I couldn't help get excited and had three of the worst surfs all summer. Too much unfulfilled expectation.
had to give myself an uppercut today. Son was spearing into OH warm blue water point surf and having a ball and when I came in I was talking to a mate who couldn't surf because he went to the docs with a sore back and they told him he needed a triple bypass.
smell the roses while you can.
Yep.
Heavy.
Best retort to a SUP drop in ive heard
"Go somewhere else you pole stroker, you disgust me"