Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 6th January)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Wind affected conditions Thurs/Fri
• Building combo of S'ly and S/SE swells Thurs, holding Fri
• Easing swells all weekend but with light winds and much better conditions
• Small N/NE windswells early next week

Recap: Tuesday delivered generally light variable winds, with a few regions picking up moderate southerlies at times (generally south of Sydney). Wave heights remained 2-3ft from the east. S’ly winds gradually freshened across the coast today, and we’ve seen building S’ly windswells in its wake, with residual 2ft surf now pushing 3ft at south facing beaches. 

Peaky Wednesday options on the Cenny Coast before the wind kicked in

This week (Jan 5 - 8)

Moderate to fresh S/SE winds will create average surf conditions for the next few days. If we’re lucky, we’ll see isolated patches of early SW winds but this looks to be the exception rather than the rule.

As for surf, we’ve got a mix of swells coming up. 

Firstly, the building S/SE windswell in the wake of today’s change has been downgraded, but theres been a broadscale synoptic adjustment in the latest model guidance that will provide better swell for the next few days (though, local winds will probably spoil conditions anyway).

A Tasman Low developing at the south-eastern end of the troughline (responsible for today’s S’ly change) has been upgraded in size and strength, though will remain poorly aligned within our swell window. However, stronger winds across a broader, longer fetch will create a little more size than was anticipated in Monday’s notes, and this S/SE energy will also arrive a little earlier too - nosing into the coast later Thursday and holding through Friday with 3-4ft sets at south facing beaches. 

Also in the water on Thursday (probably the afternoon) and Friday will be a long period though flukey, unreliable southerly groundswell, generated by a deep low south of the continent over the weekend. South facing beaches won’t pick up any more size than the building S/SE swell, but those beaches picking up the energy may show distinct difference in the length of the swell lines and their consistency. Certainly one to keep a watch out for. 

Of course, beaches not open to the south will be much smaller, with just a foot or two of residual E/NE trade swell on offer both days. But they'll have the only clean(ish) conditions under the prevailing S/SE breeze.

This weekend (Jan 9 - 10)

Small fun beaches are expected this weekend, with easing swells from all sources and generally light winds and sea breezes as a high pressure ridge moves in from the west.

S/SE tending SE swells should provide 3ft sets early Saturday, easing to 2ft by Sunday, and with no other swell sources inbound you’ll have to make the most of what you see early in the weekend. Expect smaller surf at beaches not open to the south.

Next week (Jan 11 onwards)

Northerly winds are expected throughout the first half of next week as a small squeeze between a Tasman high and an inland trough of low pressure takes effect. We’ll see building windswells during this time frame to 2-3ft but no major quality is expected. 

Long term suggests a ridge through the northern Tasman Sea may provide some minor trade swell for us, but of more interest is a developing region of low pressure north of New Zealand early next week that could spawn a more significant E/NE groundswell source for us mid-late next week.  

The usual progression of frontal systems below Tasmania are also expected to supply small southerly swells throughout next week, though no major size is on the cards.


See you Friday!