Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 9th November)

Best Days: Fri: peaky NE windswell with winds tending light and variable. 

Recap: Saturday morning offered a window of clean conditions with early offshore winds ahead of a southerly change that pushed up through the day. Size eased from 3ft, but then rebuilt to 3-4ft into the afternoon in the lee of the change, holding into Sunday with lingering light to moderate S/SE winds across the region (still fresh through the morning across the Hunter). Wave heights have eased back to 3ft at south facing beaches this morning (a little bigger in the Hunter) and conditions are much cleaner with light winds and sea breezes. 

This week (Nov 10 - 13)

A decaying southerly flow through the eastern Tasman Sea will supply small, sideband S/SE swell over the next few days, though no major size is expected, just a slow 2ft on Tuesday and Wednesday at south facing beaches.

Wednesday will also see a small inconsistent E/SE swell grace the coast, originating from a thin fetch of E/SE gales exiting western Cook Strait today (see below). It’s a strong, punchy fetch but limited in length and duration so the best we’ll see will be a few 2-3ft sets at the swell magnets. The leading edge is expected to arrive early morning (so, dawn may not reveal the full size potential), ahead of a peak into the afternoon. Expect very long breaks between waves.  

Tuesday’s conditions look clean with light winds and sea breezes, whilst a strengthening Tasman high pressure system and an approaching cut-off low in the Bight will freshen NE winds through Wednesday. Early morning should see light variable winds but it’ll become progressively more choppy throughout the day. 

As the north-east breeze continues to strengthen on Thursday thanks to the anchored Tasman high, we’ll see NE windswells build across the coast into the 3ft+ range by the afternoon (smaller earlier). However conditions won’t be great thanks to the accompanying winds. 

Friday will see wave heights plateau in and around the 3ft+ range, and whilst there’s a risk of lingering NE winds, a trough is expected to develop along the coast and there’s a fair chance that winds may become light and variable across a few regions. I’ll firm up the specifics in Wednesday’s notes, but at this stage it's looking OK.

This weekend (Nov 14 - 15)

Unfortunately, current model guidance suggests Friday’s coastal trough will be weak in structure, and won’t form significant swell-generating fetches anywhere in our swell windows. We’ll see peripheral energy from the north and south but no major size is likely. Friday's NE swell will have eased rapidly by this time and there won't be any of the mid-week S/SE swell in the water either. 

However, conditions will be clean thanks to an absence of synoptic wind. So, it’ll be clean but only small in size both days. 

One area of interest to keep an eye on is a small tropical low forming south of Fiji over the coming days, which is expected to drift south towards New Zealand. At this stage it doesn’t look big or strong enough to overcome the significant travel distance, but we could see the models swing a little more in our favour and if this eventuates, Sunday may see some small new energy from the E/NE. I’m not very confident on this happening though.

Next week (Nov 16 onwards)

Not a lot standing out in the long term charts right now.

If we’re lucky to pick up a small late pulse of E/NE swell on Sunday, it’ll probably linger into Monday but then gradually ease. 

Otherwise the extended storm track prognosis is aimed away from our swell window, so there’s nothing to get overly excited about.

See you Wednesday!