Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 2nd November)

Best Days: Most days should have great waves, with Tues, Fri and Sat the pick. Only issue will be local winds late Wed and then Thurs from about mid-morning through the arvo. Sun is also at risk of a S'ly breeze. 

Recap: It certainly was a tricky weekend of waves, with onshore winds persisting across some coasts overnight Friday and through into Saturday morning. However, elsewhere generally light and variable winds prevailed, ahead of an offshore breeze around lunchtime onwards that cleaned up surf conditions ahead of a shallow, short-lived southerly change that pushed up the coast (reaching the Northern Beaches around 1:30pm but not arriving in Newcastle until 5:30pm). Saturday morning’s easterly airstream increased wave heights to a peaky 3ft through the day, and surf size eased slowly through Sunday morning with early offshore winds ahead of a vigorous southerly change throughout the day that delivered a late increase in southerly windswell. This south swell has peaked today with 4-6ft sets at south facing beaches (a little bigger through the Hunter) though accompanying fresh S/SE winds have left most locations quite bumpy and average.

Big and blustery at Avoca this morning

This week (Nov 3 - 6)

We’ve got some really nice waves in store this week.

The weekend’s trough that slid up the NSW coast on Sunday is now parked in the central Tasman Sea, and the models have slowed its easing phase, allowing it to maintain strength into Tuesday before abating more rapidly into Wednesday (see below).

Strong to gale force E/SE winds on its southern flank will continue to generate swell through this time frame, and as a weak coastal ridge moves in from the south, local conditions will improve rapidly on Tuesday.

Aside from much better quality surf, the most notable feature of the surf will be a swing in the direction from the S/SE to the SE and then E/SE. Aside from a possible temporary pause early tomorrow, most open beaches should hold around the 4-5ft mark both days; one or two locations may see a few bigger sets if we're lucky. Tuesday looks the pick overall with light ands and sea breezes. Wednesday morning should continue with great waves but we’ll be at risk of freshening N/NE winds into the afternoon as a weak front approaches from the south.

Easing swells are then expected on Thursday with a brief window of light winds ahead of a gusty S’ly change mid-morning (locations south from the Illawarra may not experience this pocket of light winds). The trailing fetch looks a little disjointed in the latest model guidance so I have a feeling Friday’s estimate for 4-5ft surf at south facing beaches may be slightly overcooked, but regardless we can expect a late kick in windswell on Thursday and then some moderately punchy short range S/SE swell into Friday.

Although there may be a lingering S’ly breeze on Friday, most locations should see rapidly improving conditions with light winds by lunchtime (if not early morning in a few locations).

Also, in addition to Friday's short range S/SE swell, we have a decent E/NE swell on the cards. The eastern flank of the central Tasman trough - responsible for this week’s E/SE swells Tues and Wed - will have pushed against a high pressure ridge to the east of New Zealand, strengthening E/NE thru’ NE winds across a broad region generally north of New Zealand.

This process will get underway on Tuesday but it won’t be until Wednesday that we see the fetch develop properly (see below). It’ll strengthen quite a bit into Thursday though by this stage will be travelling rapidly towards New Zealand, eventually falling behind its swell shadow.

Nevertheless, the early stages of E/NE swell should reach southern NSW on Friday and we should see inconsistent 3-4ft sets from this source by the afternoon. With light winds and an additional S/SE swell in the water there should be some really nice waves on offer. 

This weekend (Nov 7 - 8)

Saturday’s shaping up to deliver great waves, with inconsistent E/NE swell around 3-4ft at open beaches, and some leftover S/SE swell offering smaller surf at northern ends. Size will probably ease through the day from both sources.

A southerly change will push up the South Coast during the day, and probably reach Sydney around dinner time though most of the day is looking pretty good at this stage with light offshore winds. 

The E/NE swell will fade steadily through Sunday and a combination of short range and long range S’ly swells (former from the fetch trailing the change, the latter from the parent low under Tas on Fri) will provide 3-4ft sets out of the south, though current indications are for lingering S’ly winds in the wake of Saturday’s late change.

Either way, there’ll be plenty of swell - I’ll fine tune the winds on Wednesday.

Next week (Nov 9 onwards)

Long term suggests persistent activity in the Tasman Sea, with a mix of mid-range S/SE E’ly swells keeping most beaches quite active. More on this on Wednesday.