Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 30th October)

Best Days: Sat/Sun AM: tricky winds but there should be peaky options at open beaches. Tues/Wed: punchy but easing SE swell with light winds. 

Recap: Wave heights have held out a little higher than expected over the last few days, and we saw stronger, bigger surf south from the Illawarra on Thursday, compared to Sydney and Hunter regions. Surf size across the northern half held around 3-4ft from the SE on Thursday (plus some reported 4-6ft sets down south), easing to 3ft today, and conditions have been generally clean with light winds in the mornings and moderate sea breezes into the afternoons.

Fun waves across the EB to finish the working week

This weekend (Oct 31 - Nov 1)

Saturday looks really tricky.

A complex low pressure trough approaching from the west will move off the coast in the early hours of the morning, and we’ll see a couple of wind shifts throughout the day. 

A rapid but short-lived strengthening NE flow overnight and into the early hours of Saturday morning will probably become light around dawn from Sydney northwards (delayed south from the Illawarra), before tending light and variable through the middle of the day.

There is a suggestion from some of the models that a thin fetch of strong southerly winds may develop adjacent the coast into the afternoon, but this is a low percentage event and conditions could really swing any which way after lunch

The overnight NE flow should kick up a brief short range NE tending E/NE swell, probably building into the 2-3ft range during the day and peaking through the afternoon. But, I’m not confident on this lil' event, as the fetch will last only a short time within our swell window. It’ll also be better focused towards the South Coast too, where we should see bigger surf very late in the day (though there’s a greater risk of poor winds persisting here).

Otherwise, there should be a couple of feet of slow, residual swell across the swell magnets north from the Illawarra all day. Aim for mid-late morning for the best conditions, though be prepared for fun surf through the afternoon if the NE swell kicks properly and the local wind holds off.

Strong but poorly aligned northerly winds off Northern NSW on Saturday will maintain small NE swells across Southern NSW into Sunday, however the dominant swell will be building S/SE energy from the southern flank of the trough, by this time strengthening an impressive fetch adjacent the coast.

The timing on this particular development isn’t clear (EC is running faster than GFS, and is stronger) but at some point throughout the day we’ll see strong southerly winds envelop all regions - early down south (possibly pre-dawn), progressively later as you head north - and we’ll then see windy south swells building into the afternoon.

I’m really not confident on Sunday’s size, but if EC comes off we’ll probably see wind affected 3-5ft sets at south facing beaches by close of business. However, GFS has a much later arrival, and therefore a smaller, slower building trend, therefore resulting in smaller, cleaner surf across most regions through the day.

Let’s split the different, and anticipate a bumpy building round of waves from early-mid arvo onwards (earlier south from Sydney) but a window of small clean conditions in the morning. 

Next week (Nov 2 onwards)

Monday looks to be a write-off with strong S/SE winds in the way of the trough moving north, but we’ll have punchy SE swells from the southern flank of the trough across the coast, probably around 4-5ft+ at exposed beaches. 

Tuesday and Wednesday look much better, as the trough will clear to the north, allowing the pressure gradient to relax and local winds to ease. We’ll see a slow easing of surf size, but Tuesday should still manage 3-5ft sets out of the SE and Wednesday could manage 3ft+ though the trend will be downwards. 

The same trough is then expected to linger about the central Tasman Sea mid-week, with a strong tropical low forecast to develop on its eastern flank (north of New Zealand, see below). Right now, the model guidance suggests it’ll move a little too fast through the swell window to be properly beneficial for swell production but it’s absolutely a system worth keeping a close eye on over the coming days, as it’s expected to have an excellent supporting ridge stretching to the north-east. If the models slow it down it’ll be very well positioned for a nice round of E/NE groundswell.

Otherwise, the longer term outlook has a succession of strong fronts through the lower Tasman Sea and an extended run of decent southerly swell through into next weekend and the start of the following week.

Have a great weekend, see you Monday!