Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 2nd September)

Best Days: Fri: small combo of swells at exposed beaches with light morning winds. 

Recap: Tuesday’s south swell came in at the bottom of forecast expectations, with sets around the 3ft range at south facing beaches, bigger across the Hunter but smaller elsewhere. Early light offshore winds gave way to afternoon sea breezes. Easing wave heights into the afternoon bottomed out around 2ft today, being a mix of residual S’ly swell and small NE windswell. Light morning northerly winds are now freshening from the N/NE.

Small peaks across the Manly stretch this afternoon

This week (Sep 5 - 6)

Thursday looks a little average on the surface with generally moderate to fresh N’ly winds across most coasts. There may be pockets of lighter winds here and there, but on the balance expect conditions to be a little ordinary. 

There will however be some small waves on offer, being small residual S/SE swell and some minor NE windswell from an anchored fetch off the NSW coast. Wave heights will be lucky to crack much more than about 2ft at exposed beaches, but it’ll be rideable if you’re very keen. 

Friday will see a significant improvement in conditions as a front pushes off the coast, creating light offshore winds ahead of weak afternoon sea breezes. 

Small S’ly swells will persist across the region - in fact the wavelength may draw out a little, as a smaller though longer period event glances the coast, generated by an intense though poorly aligned low passing south of the Tasman over the last few days.

I can’t see there being much more than 2ft at most south facing beaches (a little bigger across the Hunter) and set waves will probably be extremely inconsistent. The NE windswell from Thursday should also be present, with slow 1-2ft sets on offer. Keep your expectations low and you might pick up a lil’ beachie here and there.

This weekend (Sep 7 - 8)

It’s been interesting watching the evolution of the weather models over the last few days, regarding the weekend outlook. 

In Wednesday’s notes I mentioned a possible low forming in the wake of Friday's regional troughiness, and an outside chance for a local E/SE swell. Tuesday’s model runs ramped this up, but today it’s all but gone - so we’re probably looking at small background energy both days, maybe stray 1-2ft long period sets out of the south (15 mins between waves) on Saturday plus some minor NE windswell (1ft or less), and then some minor S/SE windswell on Sunday in the wake of a brief S’ly change later Saturday. 

So right now, I’d be inclined to flag the weekend and look for other activities. But, if things change over the coming days I’ll update in the comments below.

Next week (Sep 9 onwards)

The swell window looks inactive through the start of next week, with correspondingly small surf size expected across Southern NSW.

A strong southerly change is expected around Wednesday and trailing fronts behind should supply some solid - though potentially wind affected - south swell through the second half of the week. 

At the same time, a broadening E’ly fetch south of Fiji and New Caledonia will generate some small E/NE swell for the end of next week onwards (into the following weekend) but it’s not looking to be anything amazing at this stage. 

See you Friday!