Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 22nd July)

Best Days: Thurs: smaller from the south, and clean. Fri: reasonably solid though inconsistent pulse of new S/SE swell, early light winds. Mon/Tues/Wed: large E/NE tending E'ly swell, though windy at times. 

Recap: Unfortunately, the south swell of the last few days has fallen well short of expectations, which is a little surprising given the swell source; a broad, strong winter frontal passage through the Tasman Sea, which produced impressive readings across the regional wave buoys. South facing beaches only just reached the 4ft mark on Tuesday (against a forecast of 5-6ft) and have eased slowly today from a similar size early on. Conditions have been nice and clean through the mornings with light offshore winds, whilst afternoon sea breezes ruffled the surface.

This week (July 23 - 24)

Although the last few days have underperformed out of the south, I’m not looking to downgrade the short term outlook much at all. 

We’ve got more swell on the way, out of the S/SE, originating from a strong secondary front pushing through the lower Tasman Sea today. It’s a little off-axis and positioned further east but the fetch length is long and it’s also working on the active sea state generated by the previous system.

Surf size will ease a little more into Thursday from today, but should still manage 2-3ft sets at south facing beaches and up to 3-4ft across the Hunter (though smaller at locations not open to the south). Light variable winds and sea breezes will keep conditions nice and clean.

Our new S/SE swell is expected to reach the Far South Coast mid-late afternoon and should become visible at the Sydney wave buoy(s) overnight, so Friday morning is on target for a solid though inconsistent round of S/SE swell, up to 3-4ft+ at south facing beaches with bigger 4-6ft bombs across the Hunter and other reliable south swell magnets. 

Again, it’ll be much smaller at southern ends however conditions will be clean with light winds through the morning ahead of a moderate NE breeze into the afternoon. 

This weekend (July 25 - 26)

The trailing fetch responsible for Friday’s swell will remain active south of New Zealand through Thursday and even into Friday morning which means we’ll see some kind of lingering S/SE swell all weekend. Saturday will see the most size with inconsistent 2-3ft sets at south facing beaches early morning (smaller elsewhere though a little bigger across the Hunter) but it’ll ease to 2ft and should remain around this range for Sunday, with long breaks between waves.

A developing coastal trough over the weekend will create average conditions at many coasts. Some locations - probably those further south than north - will experience pockets of variable winds, but for the most part we’re looking at freshening NE winds on Saturday tending E’ly throughout Sunday. 

Initially there’ll be some small local NE windswell on Saturday but the swing in the wind to the east on Sunday will be a precursor to a more significant local E/NE swell on Monday. However it’s still uncertain how much size we’ll see by close of business Sunday - somewhere around the 3-4ft mark looks likely but I really need a few more days to firm things up. In any case conditions look dicey with problematic winds across many coasts. 

Next week (July 27 onwards)

The models are still holding strong with a possible ECL or Tasman Low developing off the NSW coast by Monday.

It’s still early days, but expectations are for rapidly building NE thru’ E/NE swells on Monday, tending E’ly then SE into Tuesday as the low moves to about Sydney’s latitudes (with the strongest fetch positioned on its southern flank). Though, we'll see secondary E/NE energy persisting right through the middle of the week, sourced from the back flank across the central Tasman Sea on Monday (see below). 

Surf size should reach 10ft+ at exposed spots (very late Mon, more likely Tues) though it’ll be quite wind affected at most spots. Size will probably then ease rapidly though the middle of the week though it’ll remain sizeable on Wednesday.

The main issue with this swell will be local winds, thanks to the proximity of the low to the coast. SE winds are a risk on Monday however Tuesday should see a S'ly tending SW fetch across many areas, which although holding at strength, will provide workable options at many protected southern corners/points etc. Lighter offshores are likely by Wednesday and definitely by Thursday, even though we'll be well and truly on the backside of this swell event by then.

Looking ahead, and lingering instability through the Tasman Sea is expected to maintain a conducive environment for another cluster of low pressure systems extending south from the Coral Sea into the western Tasman later next week, which will be something to keep a close eye on.

Regardless, we’re likely to see a broad, stationary E’ly fetch between New Zealand and New Caledonia/Fiji maintaining at least moderate E/NE swells through next weekend and beyond.

Certainly fantastic period of winter swell to get stuck into.

See you Friday!