Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 19th June)

Best Days: Fun waves most days, though become a little undersized early next week, ahead of some solid surf later next week. 

Recap: Easing onshore winds overnight Wednesday became light and variable through Thursday morning, with a mix of south and east swells providing 3ft+ sets at exposed beaches (a little bigger through the Hunter). Wave heights eased to 2-3ft this morning, again being a mix of south and east swells, and conditions have been clean through the morning with light offshore winds ahead of weak afternoon sea breezes. 

This weekend (June 20 - 21)

We’ve had an upgrade in the weekend’s surf potential. 

A cut-off low off the west coast of New Zealand has been slightly upgraded since Wednesday’s model runs, which means there’s a second boost in size expected on Sunday morning, following a slight pulse due later today and early Saturday.

Saturday should see inconsistent surf in the 2-3ft range at exposed beaches (smaller at souther ends, though bigger across the Hunter), whilst Sunday’s pulse is likely to come in a little bigger, around 3ft to almost 3-4ft at times (again, slightly bigger across the Hunter).

It’ll be quite lully at times, and Sunday’s looking to be the stronger of the two days (and a little less inconsistent), and also the cleanest with winds swinging to the NW as a broad trough over the eastern states pushes off the coast.

Saturday should be clean through the morning, though there’s a northerly risk into the afternoon. However, the latest model runs have weakened the synoptic flow so wind strengths shouldn’t become too strong. 

Also in the mix this weekend will be some small leftover E/NE trade swell both days, and Sunday afternoon is also on track for some small long period S’ly swell from a polar low passing below Tasmania and New Zealand over the last day or so. No major size is likely from this source though (maybe some inconsistent 2-3ft sets at south swell magnets, bigger across the Hunter).  

All in all, a fun weekend for the beaches with Sunday the pick.

Next week (June 22 onwards)

The low off NZ’s west coast providing Sunday’s flush of SE swell will push outside of our swell window over the weekend, aimed further north, resulting in sideband energy for Southern NSW. However, a small sneaky fetch of E/SE gales exiting western Cook Strait this weekend may generate another small pulse of swell that’ll arrest the otherwise easing trend early next week.

As such, surf size will probably hang in there around the 2-3ft mark on Monday though we may see occasional bigger sets every so often if we’re super lucky. Size will then slowly ease into the middle of the week.

The trough pushing off the coast on Sunday looks great on the synoptic charts but the unfortunate reality is that it’ll be mainly aimed towards Tasmania, and tracking unfavourably east, perpendicular to our swell window. Therefore I’m not expecting much size from this region.

The good news is that a new surface low will form at the southern end of the trough on Monday - off the Far South Coast - and this will slowly broaden a fetch of easterly gales across the entire southern Tasman Sea as the week progresses. 

Initially, we’ll see some SE swell push along the coast through the first half of the week, quite large across eastern Tasmania and the Gippsland but only small across Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra coasts due to a poor fetch alignment. 

However, as the fetch widens and strengthens from Wednesday (see below) we’ll see wave heights increase in size - probably from about Thursday onwards - and steadily building 4-5ft surf could become 6ft+ into the weekend.

It needs to be said that your best size prospects will be further south; wave heights will decrease with increasing northerly latitude. But at this early stage it’s looking like being a strong, sizeable and sustained swell event for much of Southern NSW later next week and through the weekend. I'll pin down the specifics next week as the models consolidate a little better.

The only fly in the ointment right now is a southerly window change later Thursday and Friday with a passing cold front, but I’ll take a closer look at that on Monday. Southerly winds are also a risk earlier in the week though current guidance suggests it won't be too strong nor problematic (watch this space). 

Lastly, for the record, we'll probably see small long period S/SE swell through the first half of the week originating from the tail end of a particularly strong though poorly aligned front south of New Zealand right now. However, this energy will probably come in below the size of the pre-existing E'ly and SE swells.  

Have a great weekend!