Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 15th June)

Best Days: Most days should have fun peaky waves with good conditions, only Wednesday (mid-late morning onwards), Thursday (early morning on the Hunter) and Saturday are at risk of tricky winds.

Recap: The weekend delivered fun waves with a mix of E/NE and S’ly swells offering 2-3ft sets on Saturday, easing a little into Sunday. Conditions were generally clean both days with light winds. Today has seen a peaky mix of E/NE and NE swells offering 2ft+ waves across open beaches, with great conditions again under light offshore breezes. 

Fun peaks at Manly this morning

This week (June 16 - 19)

Peripheral swell sources are expected for the next few days, mainly out of the E/NE, sourced from stationary trades through the Northern Tasman Sea and South Pacific over the last few days. No major size is expected but we should see a continuation of lully, inconsistent 2ft+ sets at exposed beaches on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Surface conditions will be clean on Tuesday under a moderate westerly airstream, but a cold front will clip the region overnight and drive a fresh southerly change across Southern NSW on Wednesday (though, early morning should see W/SW thru’ SW winds at many locations).

Wednesday will concurrently see an increase in southerly swells from two sources, a powerful though poorly aligned front passing under Tasmania today, and a broad fetch trailing the local change. Surf size should build from 1-2ft to 2-3ft+ through the day at south facing beaches, though these locations picking up the most size will be wind affected.

Wednesday’s southerly change will largely clear to the north into Thursday - with just a lingering SE breeze across the Hunter early morning - but light variable winds should be found south from Sydney. We’ll see small persistent E/NE swell sources as per the previous days, but another S'ly groundswell will arrive during the day, generated by the parent low to Wednesday’s change (below Tasmania on Tuesday). 

Again, a poor alignment within our swell window will cap wave heights at maybe an inconsistent 3ft south facing beaches and up to 3-4ft+ in the Hunter (though possibly wind affected). Expect smaller surf at locations not directly open to the south. There’ll be fun beachies on offer across more southern locations with the mix of swells and better conditions. 

Friday’s looking fun through the morning, with a peaky mix of easing S’ly tending S/SE swell and persistent E/NE swell form the South Pacific, with 2-3ft surf at most open beaches and clean conditions under an early light offshore breeze, ahead of a freshening afternoon northerly. 

This weekend (June 20 - 21)

A complex trough is expected to stall over the eastern states this weekend. 

The resulting synoptic pattern looks very promising for surf potential though we need a few more days to iron out the specifics. At this stage, the N/NE infeed into the trough is expected to be narrow, but stationary, and this should build NE swells from 1-2ft early Saturday to 3ft+ on Sunday.


Also in the mix will be some small sideband SE swell from a S’ly fetch developing off the West Coast of New Zealand’s South Island later Wednesday and through Thursday. It’ll be aimed more so towards northern locations but we might get lucky and see some 2-3ft sets on Saturday, easing Sunday.

And there’ll be a minor undercurrent of distant E/NE swell in the mix too, from our perennial all-week source in the South Pacific. Though, the other swell trains will be more dominant.

At this stage Saturday’s conditions look iffy with freshening N/NE winds likely to create poor conditions. However the trough is modelled to move offshore into Sunday, bringing a NW wind change and cleaning up conditions considerably. 

Let’s take a closer look on Wednesday.

Next week (June 22 onwards)

This slow moving trough looks very interesting. Some of the latest model guidance has it hanging just off the coast, with a persistent E/NE thru’ NE infeed supplying punching mid-range swell for the first half of next week. It’s still early days, but I really like the look of the broader synoptic setup and I have feeling we’ve got a whole bunch of quality surf days coming up for next week too.

See you Wednesday.