Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 13th May)

Best Days: Good waves across most coasts Friday onwards (plenty of swell Thursday, but likely to be wind affected at many spots).

Recap: Tuesday came in higher than forecast, with 3ft+ sets persisting at open beaches (mainly south facing) for most of the day. Size ease back to a slow 2ft this morning with the direction being more E/NE, however we’ve seen a slight pulse through the day with inconsistent 2-3ft sets at exposed spots this afternoon. Winds have been light, creating clean conditions. 

Afternoon sets across the Manly stretch

This week (May 14 - 15)

Interestingly, despite some beaches seeing an increase out of the E/NE this afternoon, there’s nothing really showing on the regional buoys, so it’s hard to confirm whether this is the start of the next phase of (expected) swell.

However, observations across Northern NSW are up slightly from yesterday (in period, and observed surf size) so at this stage things look to be on track. 

The main issue with Thursday is that an overnight S’ly change will likely blow out most open beaches. We’ll see a swing in the wind to the south this evening, but most of the strength probably won’t arrive (in Sydney) until after midnight and fresh southerlies are expected to persist all day Thursday. There’s very little chance for an early window of light variable (or offshore) winds across most coasts, but it is possible at a few select spots (i.e. lower Northern Beaches). 

As for surf, we’ll see a mix of extremely inconsistent E/NE swell (2-3ft) plus some building S’ly swell from two sources - short range energy trailing tonight’s change, and some smaller though longer period energy from the parent low (well south of the continent earlier this week). Sets should reach 3-4ft+ across the Hunter, smaller across Sydney’s south facing beaches (3ft+) and smaller elsewhere.

Friday will see improving conditions as the southerly breeze gradually eases. There’s a reasonable chance some locations (i.e. Hunter) will see lingering southerlies for the first half of the day but elsewhere we’re looking at light variable winds. 

Thursday’s southerly swell will ease back in size, but the good news is that there’s been a small upgrade in the second E/NE swell, due to build through the day, sourced from a stationary trough north of New Zealand (see below). This swell will peak over the weekend but Friday should see inconsistent 2-3ft surf building to 3-4ft by the afternoon, maybe some bigger sets very late in the day.

This weekend (May 16 - 17)

The upgrade in E/NE swell means Saturday’s estimates are now a little higher. Inconsistent 3-4ft+ surf is expected all day Saturday, before easing slowly through Sunday.

Light winds and sea breezes are likely both days, with great waves expected across most coasts. The late Sunday S’ly change has been downgraded in the latest model runs, which has also weakened Saturday afternoon’s wind strengths too. 

I’ll try to hone in on the specifics a little more on Friday, but the broad overview is shaping up for a super fun weekend of surf. 

Next week (May 18 onwards)

The models have moved the long term storm track around a bit over the last few days, evaporating a possible Tasman Low and steering Southern Ocean storms away from our swell window. 

The good news is that a relatively stationary troughy pattern in the South Pacific, NE of New Zealand - will be located just far north enough to allow for a small but steady supply of useful E/NE swells for much of next week. In fact, there’s a couple of beefy sub-tropical lows expected to form along this broad trough line (see below), which could be the source of a couple of stronger long period pulses, but it’s too early to pin down specifics.

The other pattern worth honing in on will be an approaching front through SA mid-week, which may concurrently strengthen a local N’ly flow Wed/Thurs, and generate some solid short range energy, followed by a return southerly swell later in the week as the broad-scale system passes eastwards into the Tasman Sea.

Let’s see how Friday’s models are stacking up!