Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 8th May)

Best Days: Most days should have fun surf. Only Sat AM is at risk for undersized surf.

Recap: Easing S’ly swell managed occasional 2-3ft sets at south facing beaches on Thursday morning (a little bigger in the Hunter) before easing during the day. Winds were generally light all day from the northern quadrant. Today has seen clean conditions with moderate to fresh NW winds, and a small S’ly swell has provided fun though slow 2ft sets at south facing beaches, up to 3ft+ in the Hunter though very inconsistent at times. 

New S'ly lines at Newcastle this morning

This weekend (May 9 - 10)

Model guidance suggests a slow weekend of tiny waves, but I think it’s quite a way off the mark. 

First up, we’ve seen some small, useful trade swell in SE Qld and Northern NSW over the last few days and this will provide a minor undercurrent of surf both days across Southern NSW. No major size is expected but the odd 1-2ft set can’t be ruled out at exposed beaches. 

Otherwise, we’ve got a couple of active southerly swell sources. 

Locally, W/SW gales exiting eastern Bass Strait later Saturday and early Sunday in conjunction with passing frontal systems will generate some shorty range S’ly swell. The first pulse (early Sun) won’t have much size - just 1-2ft at south facing beaches - but the second, stronger front will provide a mid-late afternoon pulse that should push from 2ft+ up to 3ft+ at south facing beaches right on dark (this swell will then peak early Monday, a little higher). 

The Hunter should see a little more size but the arvo pulse may arrive here too late to be of benefit.

However, the most dominant swell of the weekend will be from a more unusual source. 

The same low responsible for today’s small flukey south swell consolidated nicely south of New Zealand yesterday (just off the ice shelf) and displayed storm force S/SW winds aimed into the south-eastern Tasman Sea. This wasn’t ideally aligned for our region, but we should see a spread of swell back into Southern NSW, resulting in a building S/SE groundswell throughout Saturday towards a peak early Sunday.

Now, the timing on this event is not clear, so I’d be cautious for the early session Saturday - the leading edge is due by mid-morning (earlier on the South Coast) but we may not see an appreciable upwards trend until mid-afternoon. My best estimates are around the 2-3ft+ range at south facing beaches by this time, a little bigger at reliable south swell magnets like the Hunter. 

I’m expecting this swell to peak early Sunday with 3ft+ waves at south facing beaches, up to 3-4ft+ across the Hunter, before size eases steadily through the day. It will have come from a long way away though, so expect very long breaks between sets. And it'll be smaller at beaches not open to the south.

Saturday’s conditions are looking best with freshening NW winds ahead of a W/SW wind change overnight that’ll swing SW through Sunday morning and then trend moderate S’ly into the afternoon.

As such late Saturday and early Sunday is the pick of the forecast period. Just allow for some elasticity on the timing of the S/SE swell, as it’s not a high confidence event. 

Next week (May 11 onwards)

Sunday’s frontal passage should provide a full day of solid surf across south facing beaches on Monday, somewhere between 3ft and maybe 5ft at south facing beaches, a little bigger in the Hunter but much smaller elsewhere. 

There’ll also be some longer period energy in the mix, from the parent low SW of Tasmania on Saturday - so this will provide higher Tp values at the wave buoys but ultimately probably won't contribute a great deal of size (relatively to the mid-range, post-frontal activity).

Easing southerly swells are then expected from late Monday onwards, however we have some fun E/NE swell on the way from a developing sub tropical low currently forming mid-way between Fiji and New Caledonia, that’s expected to intensify nicely north of New Zealand over the weekend (see below). 

The models have upgraded the strength and breadth of this system and also slowed its E/SE track, keeping it a little better in the swell window. As such, our swell prospects have improved since Wednesday's notes (though the models aren’t really picking it up, which is odd). 

Monday and Tuesday should see a small undercurrent of slow E/NE swell in the 2ft+ range, before the stronger energy arrives sometime Wednesday and sees surf size pulse up into the 3ft+ range, holding through Thursday.

Ultimately this low will drift into the NZ swell shadow resulting in a downwards trend at some point, so I’ll take another pass on Monday as the models should have consolidated its forward track. But, I like the look of this event and as long as local winds behave, we'll see some really nice waves.  

Looking further ahead and a powerful polar low will track NE from a position south of SA on Monday, into the lower Tasman Sea by Wednesday, generating strong though acute S’ly swells for sometime around Thursday and Friday. Early indications are for reliable south swell magnets to pick up 3-5ft sets though I’ll fine tune this outlook on Monday. 

Have a great weekend!