Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 1st May)

Best Days: Sat: clean but small/inconsistent E/NE swells. Sun/Mon/Tues: solid S'ly swells (biggest late Sun, easing from Mon AM), generally good winds. Wed: small clean leftovers. Thurs/Fri: small long period E'ly swell and small building E/NE swell that'll hold into the weekend, and may pulse early in the following week.

Recap: Thursday delivered great waves with building NE swells to 3-4ft, and early northerly winds swinging offshore through the late morning and lunchtime period. Size eased back to about 2ft today with a dominant though inconsistent E/NE swell in the water and conditions have been nice and clean with offshore winds. 

Small clean Friday arvo lines at Maroubra

This weekend (May 2 - 3)

There’s no major changes to the weekend forecast.

Saturday will be small with gusty offshore winds. Today’s E/NE swell has been at the upper end of the size estimates (if not a shade bigger) and there’s more swell on the way from the same source over the weekend, so I’m going to slightly increase size projections. That being said, a temporary easing is possible across Southern NSW early Saturday morning, inline with observations across Northern NSW this afternoon. 

As such I’m expecting a better chance for inconsistent 2ft+ sets on Saturday afternoon and through Sunday, but Saturday morning may be undersized with slow, inconsistent 1-2ft waves. 

The Long Wave Trough currently responsible for cold weather, gale force winds and cold temps won’t push into our south swell window until Saturday morning, so the earliest we’ll see an upswing in new southerly swell will be very late Saturday - and probably just the South Coast at best (originating from W/SW gales exiting eastern Bass Strait).

We’ll then see this swell mature overnight and into early Sunday, before being overtaken by a bigger S’ly swell from the parent low as it rounds the Tasmanian corner on Saturday afternoon, generating a a peak in size for Sunday afternoon.

Wave heights will be steadily upwards all day and should reach 6-8ft at south facing beaches by the afternoon, with bigger waves across the Hunter and at other south swell magnets. Anywhere not open to the south will be a lot smaller, but in saying that even sheltered southern corners will see quite a lot of water moving around. So, it won’t be a day for inexperienced surfers.

Early winds may be W/SW at a few spots but we’ll see an anti-clockwise trend to the SW and then S throughout the day. Winds may start to ease around mid-afternoon as the front clears to the east but regardless, conditions will be best suited to sheltered locations from late morning/lunchtime onwards. 

Next week (May 4 onwards)

Sunday’s swell will ease through Monday but the downwards trend will eventually be arrested by a small pulse of long period S’ly swell generated by a polar low racing below Tasmania on Sunday.

So, early Monday should still be somewhere in the 4-6ft range at south facing beaches (bigger in the Hunter, much smaller at beaches not open to the south), before abating to 3-5ft through the day but we should see 3-4ft+ surf holding through Tuesday (again, bigger Hunter, smaller elsewhere).

Conditions will be pretty good, but not amazing during this period. A broad ridge across the coast will maintain moderate southerly breezes on Monday though local terrestrial effects should offer a decent period of light W/SW winds early morning (maybe up until lunch). Tuesday should see generally light winds and sea breezes, along with Wednesday too as the swell’s easing trend kicks in again.

The synoptics look pretty dynamic for the long term but I can’t see any significant swell events at the moment. A broad, deep polar low below Tasmania mid-week (see below) will generate small though long period S’ly swells for the end of the week (say, very inconsistent 2-3ft+ south facing beaches Thurs/Fri, but up to 3-5ft across the Hunter).

Elsewhere, a stationary ridge through the Coral Sea and Northern Tasman will generate small E/NE swells later next week and through the weekend. There’s a suggestion for an associated, evolving trough/low north of New Zealand later next week that could be a more substantial swell generating system for early-midway through the following week, but that’s a long time away.

Have a great weekend, see you Monday!