Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 20th March)

Best Days: Entire period: extended run of pulsey south swells, with generally OK winds. Biggest Saturday and Tuesday. 

Recap: E/NE swells pulsed a little higher than expected on Friday, to 3-4ft (against a 3ft+ forecast), and conditions were clean with light winds and afternoon sea breezes. Size has eased slowly today from 3ft, and early light N’ly winds are now around to the NW. 

This weekend (Mar 21 - 22)

Model guidance has slightly sped up an approaching front due to push across Tasmanian longitudes this evening. It’ll now enter the lower Tasman Sea tonight, and push up a mid-range S’ly swell during Saturday afternoon (instead of Sunday, as previously expected). 

However, this will follow in the footsteps of a more impressive long period S’ly groundswell that’s due to push along the Southern NSW coast this evening, with peak swell periods likely to reach 15-16 seconds, providing quality surf on Saturday morning (assuming your local enjoys south swells of this nature).

This swell was generated by a powerful front south of Tasmania mid-week, an although not greatly aligned within our swell window, will provide some solid S’ly lines for Saturday morning - up to 3-4ft+ at most south facing beaches, but larger near 5-6ft at reliable south swell magnets like the Hunter (expect smaller surf elsewhere, including leftover E/NE swell). 

Local winds look pretty good, though there is a risk that some locations will see lingering S’ly winds from a change due in later today (most likely Hunter Coast, maybe Central Coast, and also the South Coast). Otherwise, expect light variable winds and sea breezes. 

The mid-range S’ly swell (mentioned first up) will probably be hard to detect on Saturday afternoon as it fills into the coast - probably just increasing the inconsistency of what would otherwise be a rather inconsistent long period S’ly swell. 

A small secondary S/SE pulse is then due to fill in on Sunday, originating from a small low associated with tonight’s system entering the low Tasman Sea (see below). This low will briefly flare up mid-way between Tasmania and New Zealand overnight tonight and into Saturday morning, and should provide occasional 3ft sets to south facing beaches on Sunday (a little bigger through the Hunter, maybe 3-4ft+ at times). 

Sunday’s conditions look good early with light morning winds, but an approaching S’ly change has also been sped up in the latest model runs and it’ll probably be into Sydney mid-afternoon (earlier south from here) so aim for a morning paddle for the best conditions. A boost in short period S’ly windswell is likely late in the day too.

Next week (Mar 23 onwards)

Sunday's late change will provide a modest increase in S’ly swell for Monday, though local winds look problematic out of the south (slim chance for pockets of SW winds here and there). Surf size should reach 3-4ft at south facing beaches (smaller elsewhere, a shade bigger in the Hunter) but I’m not expecting anything amazing at this stage. Winds will ease through the day though, so the afternoon should have a few reasonable options.

The parent low/front to this system will be much further south around the same time, and is expected to kick up a better, long period S’ly swell for Tuesday. It’ll be originating from deep, polar origins, and should result in 3-5ft surf at south facing beaches, and 5-6ft+ surf across the Hunter and other reliable south swell magnets. 

Local conditions look good too under a generally light variable airstream, possibly E/NE but no major strength. 

Looking further ahead and the rest of the week will see a continuation of back-to-back mid/long period S’ly swells from strong trailing fronts below Tasmania. They each won’t be as big as Tuesday but should manage anywhere from 3ft to occasionally 5ft (upper end of this size range mainly Hunter-based) from Wednesday thru’ Saturday.

Next weekend will also see a building E/NE swell from a ridge developing through the Northern Tasman Sea around Thursday, with the energy persisting into the start of the following week. No significant size is on the cards but it looks like being a useful swell source in the event that our south swell window dries up. 

Have a great weekend, see you Monday!