Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 18th March)

Best Days: Thurs/Fri: fun clean, easing E/NE swell for the open beaches. Sat: decent long period S'ly swell, easing Sun. 

Recap: E/NE swells maintained 3ft surf on Tuesday morning before an afternoon pulse pushed wave heights into the 4-5ft range. Winds were mainly light and variable with sea breezes though locations between Sydney and Newcastle did see a lingering S’ly breeze at times. Surf size has settled back to 3-4ft today and conditions have been clean with light winds. 

Great beachies right across Southern NSW today

This week (Mar 19 - 20)

We’ve got some more E/NE swell for the rest of the week but in general we’ll see a slow easing trend into the weekend. 

The Tasman Sea and our south swell window are devoid of swell generating activity right now, but the latter stages of ex-TC Gretel were quite strong over the last few days, just north and north-east of New Zealand’s North Island. Unfortunately the primary fetch was poorly aimed for our region, but we’ll still see a small spread of swell energy back into our coast that could provide occasional 3ft+ sets on Thursday morning.

Surf size will then slowly ease into the afternoon and Friday, possibly still 2-3ft early on but likely to become smaller during the day. Expect long waits for the bigger waves.

Local conditions look great with mainly light winds both days. If anything, winds will be out of the north but shouldn’t be too strong (biggest risk will be overnight Thursday). On Friday we’ll see morning light N/NW winds, and into the afternoon a weak front to the south will create a wind shift to the W/NW. So, conditions should be generally clean both days.

This weekend (Mar 21 - 22)

No change to the weekend outlook. 

Mode guidance still has a powerful front passing well to the south of Tasmania later tonight and Thursday. Although not perfectly aligned within our swell window, core winds are very strong and I like the storm track - it’s far enough south to allow for a good spread up along the East Coast. 

The leading edge of this new swell may clip the Far South Coast late Friday, but it’ll mainly fill in across most Southern NSW coasts overnight, peaking into Saturday morning. Surf size should reach 3-4ft+ at most south facing beaches (sets will be a little inconsistent) but reliable south swell magnets like the Hunter should pick up 5-6ft bombs. Anywhere not open to the south will be much smaller.

The only concern is an unrelated front passing across Tasmanian latitudes overnight Friday, creating a SW wind change that could veer S’ly for a few hours on Saturday morning. Most coasts shouldn’t see too much strength but it is certainly a risk for a handful of exposed spots. 

Into Sunday, and the long period S’ly swell will ease back in size but we’ll see a reinforcing S’ly swell from Friday’s front (mentioned above) that should maintain 3ft+ sets at south facing beaches. It’ll be smaller elsewhere but the Hunter should pick up a few bigger sets (say, 3-5ft).

Winds will be light for most of the day but another front will clip the region into the afternoon and a late S’ly change can’t be ruled out. So get in early for the best waves. 

There’ll also be some small easing E/NE swell in the mix all weekend though nothing of any great size. 

Next week (Mar 23 onwards)

Sunday’s late front will be associated with a temporarily deepening Tasman Low that looks like it’ll generate some useful S'ly swell for Monday, around 4-6ft at south facing beaches. Winds look a little iffy (moderate S’ly) but we’ll see early SW breezes in some locations.

Size will then ease from Tuesday with light variable winds and sea breezes returning to the coastal margin. Smaller surf will then settle in for the second half of the week.

See you Friday!