Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 16th March)

Best Days: Most days this week: should have fun E/NE swell at open beaches with good conditions (couple of wind risks, see below). Sat: nice long period S'ly swell, easing Sun. 

Recap: A strong S’ly change pushed across Southern NSW early Saturday morning, building small residual E’ly swells to a large wind affected S’ly swell by the afternoon, with sets in the 6ft+ range at some exposed locations. Wave heights eased from 4-5ft on Sunday though with lingering S’ly winds. Today has seen the S’ly swell drop a lot more but a new E’ly swell is providing 3ft+ sets at open beaches with moderate to fresh winds from the south or east (depending on location), so conditions are patchy. 

This week (Mar 17 - 20)

We’ve got a broad area of activity within our east and north-east swell window at the moment, mainly in association with TC Gretel, currently passing quickly through the Coral Sea and Northern Tasman Sea, enroute to the South Pacific.

TC Gretel won’t directly generate any swell for us, but a strengthening ridge to its south covers a broad region across the the northern Tasman Sea - if somewhat disjointed in structure. As such, we’ll see erratic pulses from the E/NE from today through Friday.

Additionally, TC Gretel is enhancing a few other fetches in other swell windows.

A stalled front off the SW tip of New Zealand’s South Island will anchor a modest S’ly fetch in the south-eastern Tasman Sea, and this will supply small SE swell through Wednesday and Thursday. E/SE gales exiting western Cook Strait on Tuesday will generate a small swell from the same direction around Thursday. 

As for size, most days will probably hang around the 3ft mark at exposed beaches though there’s potential for a few brief pulses of bigger surf near 4ft+. This is most likely Tuesday (probably the afternoon) and also Wednesday, though as we’re not expecting a defined swell front, it’s hard to be confident in the arrival and duration. Surf size will trend down through Thursday and Friday though there’ll be plenty of fun waves for exposed beaches. 

Winds should be pretty good all week, mainly light and variable across most coasts. Likely risks are a lingering SE breeze on Tuesday (mainly north from Sydney through the Hunter), and a possible northerly breeze later Thursday and Friday. Otherwise, most coasts should see light morning winds and relatively weak afternoon sea breezes. 

This weekend (Mar 21 - 22)

A powerful front will pass well to the south of Tasmania later Wednesday and Thursday (see below). This system - despite not being perfectly aligned within our swell window - looks very good for a decent south swell arriving overnight Friday and peaking through Saturday (the Far South Coast may even pick up this new swell very late Friday).

However, an unrelated secondary front clipping the Tasmanian region on Friday may push into Southern NSW for Saturday morning, providing a brief period of unfavourable winds. This is a low chance right now but will need to be closely monitored in Wednesday's updates. Sunday currently looks favourable with light winds and sea breezes (for the most part, Saturday should be OK too).  

As for size, Saturday’s long period S’ly swell should build into the 3-4ft+ range at south facing beaches throughout the day, however reliable south swell magnets (likely the Hunter) and offshore bombies will enjoy the long periods (16-17 seconds) and should see occasional 5-6ft sets. 

Surf size will ease from this source through Sunday but a new mid-range S’ly swell form the secondary front (mentioned above) should keep south facing beaches the 3ft+ range. 

Of course, anywhere else not exposed to the south will be much smaller, and they’ll see some residual E’ly swell through the weekend too.

Next week (Mar 23 onwards)

More strong fronts are expected south of Tasmania this weekend suggesting plenty of south swell next week.

In addition, a steady trade flow through the South Pacific and Northern Tasman Sea should supply small but useful E/NE swell, and there’s a suggestion for an enhanced E’ly dip that may boost surf size later in the week with a little more size and period.

More on this in Wednesday’s update.