Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 2nd March)

Best Days: Tues: good S'ly swell with improving conditions. Wed/Thurs: strong S'ly swell, though local winds will probably spoil many spots (Thurs the best choice inside sheltered northern corners). Fri: light winds and an easing mix of swells. All week: slowly building distant E/NE groundswell, peaking Fri/Sat (no major size though). 

Recap: The weekend delivered a strong S’ly swell, with set waves pushing 4-5ft+ at a handful of reliable south swell magnets, but smaller surf elsewhere. Wave heights peaked on Saturday and then eased through Sunday. Today saw the arrival of a long period S’ly groundswell, with peak periods topping 19 seconds a few hours before dawn. Set waves have been rather inconsistent and the upper end of the surf size has been confined to reliable south swell magnets (such as the Hunter) but a few locations have seen solid 6ft+ sets. Winds were offshore through the morning ahead of a S’ly change which pushed into Sydney a few hours ago (currently gusting 52kts at Wattamolla, just south of Cronulla). 

Easy 6ft sets in Newcastle this morning

This week (March 3 - 6)

We’ve got stacks of south swell lining up for the rest of the week.

Today’s long period energy is easing, but will be replaced on Tuesday from the trailing fetch behind today’s southerly change. It'll actually peter out across the Mid North Coast on Tuesday morning, but there were some reasonably strong winds exiting eastern Bass Strait this morning, so south facing beaches should maintain 3-4ft sets (with smaller surf elsewhere). 

Conditions look pretty good. A lingering S/SE breeze is possible north from Sydney through to the Hunter, but it’ll become variable by mid-morning and light winds are expected across remaining coasts all day. 

A series of powerful fronts currently under Tasmania (see below) are generating our next round of S’ly swell, which will fill in during Wednesday and hold through Thursday.

For the most part I’m expecting surf size to rebuild to 3-5ft at south facing beaches (smaller elsewhere thanks to the swell direction) but the models tightened up the core fetch in the last few runs and I think we’ll see a brief period - probably Wednesday lunchtime into the afternoon - where some south facing beaches may push a solid 5-6ft+ (the Hunter is the best chance of seeing this occur).

Wednesday’s issue will be a freshening E/NE breeze as a high in the southern Tasman Sea strengthens. Locations south of Sydney or perhaps the Illawarra may be spared any major wind strength through the early morning, but north from Sydney should see moderate to fresh E’ly winds from the get go, with all locations becoming blown out during the day. This is a shame as the S’ly groundswell will probably go to waste at many spots - there’s nowhere to hide from an E/NE wind.

We’ll also see building E/NE swell during the day into the 2-3ft range. 

Overnight into Thursday the breeze will swing to the NE, probably maintaining much of its strength too. There is a chance for an afternoon trend to the N or even NW, but at this stage conditions are looking a little worse for wear. 

In addition to the existing S’ly groundswell and easing E/NE swell, we’ll see building short range NE swells that should manage 2-3ft sets at NE facing beaches. Protected northern corners will offer the only rideable options on Thursday. 

Into Friday, and conditions will improve through the morning as the trough pushes off the coast, bringing about an early W’ly breeze ahead of an afternoon S’ly change. The mid-week S’ly swell will be easing by this time (occ 2-3ft sets at south facing beaches) and the local NE swell will also be down to just a couple of feet tops.

It’s also worth pointing out that all week will see a small, slow undercurrent of distant E/NE swell from a stationary E’ly fetch atop a large South Pacific high pressure system. For the most part, other swell sources will be way more dominant but on Friday we’ll see a peak from this source, with very inconsistent 2-3ft sets on offer. It’s not worth working around, but considering the easing trend from remaining sources, it may end up being some useful energy if you’re unable to surf any other day this week.

This weekend (Mar 7 - 8)

A small S’ly fetch at the bottom of the trough pushing off the coast later this week may supply some small S’ly swell for Southern NSW this weekend, but no major size is expected.

This fetch is expected to however remain slow moving (though off-axis), so any swell it generated is likely to persist both days, but at this stage I’ll be surprised to see much more than slow 2-3ft sets at south facing beaches. 

Local conditions look dicey over the weekend though with a broad ridge expected to freshen SE winds across most coasts. Early Saturday morning may see a brief window of opportunity with lighter winds, but on the balance surf conditions are not shaping up to be anything special at this stage.

Building SE windswells are likely as the ridge gathers strength too. We’ll also see a small undercurrent of distant E/NE swell all weekend but again, without any notable size. 

Next week (Mar 9 onwards)

The Tasman ridge looks to be a source of mid-range swell into early next week, but I can’t see anything amazing in the surf department at this stage. 

Strong fronts below the continent will also contribute small long period S’ly swell, but they don’t look very sizeable based on the current model guidance. 

See you Wednesday!