Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 31st January)

Best Days: Sun: punchy, improving NE swell with light winds developing through the morning ahead of a late S'ly change. Mon: light winds (mainly in the morning) and a small peaky mix of swells. Thurs onwards: building E'ly tending NE swell, possibly sizeable around Fri/Sat. Plenty of swell expected into the following week too.

Recap: A small S’ly swell provided 2ft+ sets to most south facing beaches on Thursday though it was a little inconsistent. Conditions were clean with morning offshores; afternoon onshores bumped things up. Today we’ve seen very small conditions early on, with a distant E/NE swell from a tropical low near Samoa not showing (yet.. though it was only meant to be a small, flukey event anyway). Winds are now freshening from the NE and we’re seeing building windswells across the region. 

NE windswells on the build at Manly this afternoon

This weekend (Feb 1 - 2)

We’ve got stacks of surf on tap for this weekend. But, Saturday will be wind affected.

The source of this swell - out of the NE - is a strong fetch developing adjacent to the coast as we speak, extending up into Northern NSW and a reasonable distance off the East Coast. We’ll see 3-4ft+ sets at most NE facing beaches, possibly a little bigger south from Sydney, but it doesn’t look like there’ll be much in the way of favourable pockets. 

A S’ly change will move up along the Far South Coast on Sunday morning, and it’s currently expected to reach Sydney mid-late afternoon (~5pm, give or take an hour). 

Prior to its arrival, we’ll see the northerly flow ease and become variable across most coasts. Ideally, winds would swing moderate offshore to iron out the lumps and bumps form the overnight flow, but this is unlikely, so expect a slow improvement in surface conditions through the morning instead. It looks like the best waves will probably occur around lunchtime across most Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra coasts (earlier on the South Coast, as the change is due here sooner), and the late S’ly will probably become quite gusty, confining the only rideable options to protected southern corners. 

As for size, Saturday’s estimated wave heights will probably hold through Sunday morning but then ease into the afternoon, as the approaching trough disrupts the swell source. There’ll be waves all day though, so just pick the eyes out of the wind.

Next week (Feb 3 onwards)

Sunday’s late S’ly change will largely dissipate overnight, leaving most coasts under a light variable breeze to kick off the working week.

Sunday’s NE swell will have eased quite a bit by then, but not entirely, as the N’ly fetch will remain anchored off Northern NSW on Sunday night. So, expect a small peaky mix of NE swell and minor S’ly windswell (trailing the change) with sets around 2ft+ at exposed beaches. 

A much stronger S’ly change will advance along the South Coast during the day, reaching Sydney mid-late afternoon again (sometime around 5pm, give or take). 

This will be a broader, deeper change that will have a more significant trailing fetch, and will generate a solid S’ly swell in its wake (for Tuesday), with south facing beaches likely to reach 4-5ft+ early, though it will abate during the day. Initially there’ll be a lingering S/SE breeze but this will also throttle back as the day progresses. So expect average conditions at first, improving into the afternoon. 

Beyond this, we’ve got a dynamic period of surf coming up. Though, mid-week will be between events so expect a few days of smaller surf. 

Monday’s late S’ly change will clear to the North Coast into Tuesday, then weaken before lingering as a trough off SE Qld. We’ll then see the trough slowly deepen later in the week, and move southwards, possibly forming a low off Southern NSW around Friday or Saturday (see below). Regardless, we'll see building E’ly then NE swells with potentially some very large waves depending on how the low evolves (we're not quite sure which part of the coast will see the most size either).

It’s still early days, but I’m holding firm for my expectations of a peak in the 6ft, maybe 6-8ft range at the height of the event, though there’s plenty of room for a further upgrade. We’ll initially see residual S/SE and E’ly swells on Wednesday in the 2-3ft range, with surf size starting to ramp up through Thursday. 

Dynamic troughs like this are excellent for surf prospects if they remain close enough to the coast to allow locally variable winds, whilst still generating strong surf. However, there is a fair chance that some part of this event will be accompanied with periods of onshore winds, though it’s still too far out to have any confidence in the specifics. So let’s take another pass on Monday to hone in on the best windows of opportunity.

This swell event will dominate the region into the start of the following week, but the long term outlook beyond this looks great with sustained trades across the Northern Tasman Sea expected to supply moderate E/NE swells through the rest of that week.

Have a great weekend, see you Monday!