Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 8th January)

Best Days: Most days have the potential for fun waves, though it'll be wind affected from late Friday through Saturday. Later Sun/Mon/Tues will see a significant S'ly groundswell event, very large for a period on Monday. And then there's stacks of fun surf due later next week and into the following weekend too.

Recap: S’ly swells maintained 3ft+ surf across south facing beaches on Tuesday, easing a little into today though there’s been an underlying E’ly swell for the last two days with peaky 2ft+ sets at most beaches. Winds have been early variable tending onshore (NE yesterday, S’ly today) so conditions have been good through the mornings, but deteriorating throughout the day.

This week (Jan 9 - 10)

Small residual swells and light variable winds with sea breezes are expected Thursday, with the trend persisting into Friday morning ahead of a strengthening N/NE breeze from late morning onwards. So, early morning will offer the best conditions both days though Thursday afternoon’s onshores shouldn’t be too strong.

Most beaches will produce small, slow waves in the 1-2ft range tops, however there is yet another flukey southerly groundswell on the way, and some south facing beaches - mainly across the Hunter - could pick up inconsistent sets of a decent size. 

The low that produced this swell was located under WA a few days ago, sufficiently south in latitude to be positioned right on the periphery of our most acute south swell window. The resulting swell periods will be quite long (16-17 seconds) but the poor position and alignment of this fetch means only a handful of reliable breaks will pick up the glancing energy. And set waves could be twenty minutes or more apart.

The swell is expected to build slowly through Thursday, and peak early Friday, so any time during this two days have the potential for stray 2-3ft+ sets. Though in general, most beaches will probably dip out. 

Friday’s strengthening breeze will build NE windswells from lunchtime onwards, from 1-2ft up to 3ft+ by dusk, though quality won’t be very high under the accompanying breeze.

This weekend (Jan 11 - 12)

The models have sped up the arrival time for Saturday’s S’ly change. As such, the surf outlook for the start of the weekend has diminished since Monday's notes. 

Friday’s late strengthening N/NE breeze will still generate a hefty short range NE swell, but with the S’ly change now due into Sydney around midnight, the peak in NE swell will occur shortly thereafter - under the cover of darkness, and we’ll see easing size from before dawn onwards. 

NE exposed spots should still have a few 3-4ft sets around sunrise, but size will diminish to 2-3ft by mid-morning and it’ll probably be smaller through the afternoon. 

And with 25kts of S’ly breeze on top, only a handful of protected southern ends will offer clean conditions. 

The S’ly change will however kick up 3-5ft of peaky short range swell by the afternoon, so there’ll be a mix of swells getting into protected spots after lunch, and we’ll see some kind of surfable opportunity for keen surfers. 

Moderate though easing onshore winds from the SE are expected on Sunday, with just an outside chance for a brief window of lighter SW winds across one or two coasts around dawn. We’ll also see easing S’ly swell from 3ft +to 2-3ft during the morning, and lumpy but workable surf at exposed beaches (smaller at south facing spots). 

Sometime around late afternoon, the leading edge of longer period S’ly groundswell will filter through, originating from the parent low to Saturday night’s change - a beast of a system that’ll ‘bomb’ below Tasmania over the weekend (the second such system within a week!). 

The primary swell event will peak on Monday, but the late session on Sunday could produce an increase back up into the 4-5ft range at reliable south facing beaches as the leading edge filters through (earlier on the South Coast), and much bigger sets are expected at offshore reefs and reliable south swell magnets due to the long, growing swell periods. With lighter winds by this time, it’ll be well worth keeping this time frame flexible. 

Next week (Jan 13 onwards)

The low responsible for Sunday’s late groundswell increase looks incredible on the charts (see below). And whilst the models are showing a decent kick in size (estimating 5ft surf at south facing beaches on Monday) I think this is being way undercooked. 

The sheer size, strength and alignment of the fetch is incredible, and the recent model trends are a positive sign at under 4 days out from genesis. 

The strong S’ly swell direction and impressive swell periods (16-18 seconds) will create a wide range in wave heights across the coast. South facing beaches should build to 6-8ft, and offshore bombies and other exposed south swell magnets should be pushing into the 10ft+ range at times. This is looking to be a very serious swell event. 

Of course, anywhere not exposed to the south will be a lot smaller, but there’ll still be a lot of water moving around no matter where you are.

Winds look pretty good, light and variable through the morning, freshening NE into the afternoon as a trough moves in from the west. 

Strong, sizeable though rapidly easing S/SE swells are expected form Tuesday onwards, and the only other swell source of interest at this stage is some sideband trade energy from a stationary ridge occupying the Northern Tasman Sea from Monday onwards. This should pad out the back half of next week and the weekend with small peaky E/NE surf. 

Also, still a suggestion for another Tropical Cyclone around the Vanuatu/Fiji region later next week, of which it’s likely to enter our NE swell window next weekend. Whether it develops favourably for us or not remains to be seen, but in any case, the South Pacific synoptic sea certainly showing signs of an extended period of swell production for the East Coast. 

See you Friday!