Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 6th January)

Best Days: Tues: fun S'ly swells with light morning winds, easing Wed. Chance for some stray long period sets Thurs/Fri out of the south, only at swell magnets. Sat: strong NE swell with brief early window of good winds. 

Recap: Building NE windswells on Saturday provided 2-3ft sets with freshening N/NE winds, ahead of an overnight S’ly change that delivered increasing S’ly windswells through Sunday into the 3ft+ range. Today we’ve seen a combination of short-range E/SE swell and long period S’ly swell across the coast today, with south facing beaches seeing anywhere between 3ft and 5ft of very inconsistent surf at times, and much smaller waves elsewhere. Light to moderate onshore winds have kept surface conditions a little below average in most locations though there have been pockets of light variable winds here and there.

Solid Monday morning S'ly set at Queenscliff

This week (Jan 7 - 10)


The models really don’t like the current underlying long period S’ly swell. Although it was visible at the coast, it didn’t register on the buoys (the short range E/SE swell was likely more dominant) and based on model guidance this south swell is expected to vanish into Tuesday. 

I am however expecting one more pulse to push through overnight - so with the local SE swell easing back, we may see swell periods register a little higher over the coming 12 hours - and therefore Tuesday morning still has reasonable potential for some decent sets at south facing beaches. How big? Maybe 3ft south facing in Sydney, a little bigger through the Hunter but much smaller elsewhere, and with very long breaks between waves.

Though I gotta say, confidence is not particularly high - on what was already a low confidence event anyway. The deep mid-latitude low that generated this swell formed in a flukey part of our swell window and travelled faster than ideal, perpendicular to the great circle paths, so a much smaller percentage of locations (than normal) will be likely to pick up any true energy.

The short range E/SE swell will tend more E’ly into Tuesday but also ease in size, back to 2ft+. Local winds will swing to the NE but should be variable across many coasts early morning (picking up through the afternoon).

The rest of the week sees an unstable troughy pattern off the coast with generally small surf potential from local fetches, plus initially some small easing S/SE swell from the current event. Wave heights probably won’t reach much more than a slow peaky 2ft. 

However - and this is an even more flukey source than the one generating today’s/tomorrow’s swells - a large polar low below WA today is displaying a wide fetch of W’ly gales (see below), and it’s positioned right on the periphery of our acute south swell window. I am doubtful that most beaches will pick up much, if any size from this system, but with swell periods like to be anywhere between 15-18 seconds glancing the coast from late Wednesday through Thursday and Friday, I can’t rule out stray 2-3ft+ sets at a handful of south swell magnets (mainly the Hunter), every twenty or thirty minutes.

Elsewhere, Friday afternoon will see strengthening N/NE winds as a strong front approaches from, the west, and whilst early Saturday will see the most size from this source, we are likely to see some late, wind affected 3-4ft sets right on dark. Though, wave heights may not start to build appreciably until quite late in the day.

This weekend (Jan 11 - 12)

Saturday morning’s looking really good at this stage, albeit for a brief period of time. 

Gale force S’ly winds will push up the Southern NSW coast in the morning but we’re currently on track for a two or three hour period of light offshore winds ahead of its arrival, mainly north from Wollongong (this window will be brief at best, if at all, south from the Illawarra).

Overnight NE gales (see below) are expected to be quite strong and the early session should see around 4-5ft of peaky NE swell.

Once the S'ly wind kicks in (early-mid morning), it’ll push the only rideable options to southern ends, and surf size will slowly ease from the NE through the day.  At the same time, these S'ly winds will generate a similar level of short range S’ly swell for south facing beaches, with smaller surf elsewhere.

Sunday looks to be in a post S/SE flow with gradually easing S’ly swells, around 3-4ft at south facing beaches, easing to 2-3ft by lunchtime. There won’t be any NE swell leftover either. At this stage, protected locations will be cleanest but much smaller, and probably the best looking option all day.

Late afternoon, we’ll start to see longer period S’ly groundswell filter through, originating from the parent low (much further SE of Tasmania on Saturday). This energy will peak overnight or early Monday, but the late session on Sunday could produce an increase back up into the 3-5ft range at reliable south swell magnets. Due to the timing, you'll have a better chance of picking up this increase on the South Coast.

As a side note, a developing ridge through the northern Tasman Sea and Coral Sea will generate some small underlying trade swell for the weekend, not that it’ll be noticeable beneath the local noise. But it’ll be there.

Next week (Jan 13 onwards)

I fear Sunday’s late arrival of S'ly swell will probably peak overnight and then trend down steadily through Monday. We’ll see light winds to start the working week and easing swells from 3-4ft to 2-3ft at south facing beaches. 

Long term shows a broad ridge through the Tasman Sea, generating a sustained period of small trade swell for much of the East Coast, though no major quality is expected until later next week or the weekend, as wave heights start to increase as the ridge broadens and strengthens. Certainly a system to keep a watch on as these kinds of stationary patterns allow for more consistent swells with a broad spread of periods, ideal for peaky beachbreaks.

There’s also a suggestion for a Tropical Cyclone in our NE swell window towards the end of that week and/or weekend (in association with a passing MJO phase to the north), but that’s a very long time away. 

See you Wednesday!