Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 25th November)

Best Days: Tues: small peaky NE swell with improving conditions as winds veer offshore. Wed: solid, brief S'ly swell with early light winds in a few regions; size easing rapidly during the day. 

Recap: Saturday saw small, easing NE swells and mainly variable winds. Developing southerly breezes overnight persisted through Sunday with continuing small swells at exposed beaches. We’ve seen similarly small waves this morning, with lighter winds swinging around to the N/NE and freshening. Small NE windswells are now building across the region. 

This week (Nov 26 - 29)

A vigorous cold front will push up the Southern NSW coast on Tuesday, reaching Wollongong late afternoon and Sydney after sunset.

Ahead of the change, winds should slowly swing from overnight N/NE breezes to the N then NW through Tuesday morning, maybe even W’ly through the early afternoon. This should clean up conditions nicely, and with a small peaky NE windswell reaching 2ft+ at exposed beaches (maybe even a shade bigger mid-late afternoon) there should be some fun small waves on offer.

Tuesday’s late S’ly change will quickly clear to the east overnight, leaving most coasts with light SW winds Wednesday morning, tending variable through the middle of the day, ahead of moderate NE afternoon sea breezes. A handful of locations (mainly the Hunter) may however see a lingering S’ly breeze early morning so keep your expectations in check.

Gale force S/SW winds trailing the change should generate a punchy overnight southerly swell, that will slowly ease through Wednesday but should produce solid 4ft sets at south facing beaches in the morning. Locations not exposed to the south will be much smaller but we should see 4-5ft+ sets across exposed Hunter coasts. Expect a foot or two loss of size by late afternoon.

The rest of the week will then experience mainly light to moderate N’ly winds under a weak Tasman high, and a series of small, background swells best suited to exposed beaches. There’ll be some minor NE windswell in the mix, as well as easing S’ly swell Thursday, ahead of a minor rebuilding S’ly swell from Friday from a poorly aligned front underneath Tasmania mid-week. 

At this stage I’ll be surprised if many locations see much more than slow, peaky 1-2ft surf each day, though the Hunter has the potential for a little more size out of the south early Thursday and then again on Friday (probably the afternoon). 

This weekend (Nov 30 - Dec 1)

Looks like a pretty lacklustre weekend in the surf department at this stage.

Local troughiness will maintain variable winds both days (if anything, freshening from the north on Sunday afternoon) and with no major swell sources expected to fire up before week’s end - or over the weekend for that matter - we’re looking down the barrel of small slow surf at the swell magnets. 

Let’s take a closer look on Wednesday to see if there’s any more light at the end of the tunnel.

Next week (Dec 2 onwards)

Long term model guidance is suggesting a major amplification of the Long Wave Trough over South-eastern Australia later this weekend and early next week, which could herald a major south swell event for the middle of next week. 

That’s what I’ll be focusing on over the coming days, as there ain’t much else showing up on the extended forecast charts right now.

See you Wednesday!