Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 25th October)

Best Days: Sat: small peaky S/SE swell potential, but a more reliable (tho' small) NE windswell, with offshore winds. Sun thru' Thurs: overlapping south swells, 'bout five in total. Good options most mornings with light winds. 

Recap: S’ly swells have slowly eased over the last few days. Thursday morning saw stray 2ft+ sets at south swell magnets, today is down to a foot or so and there’s also been a small signal of NE windswell in the mix both days too. Winds are temporarily light N’ly tending NW this morning but will restrengthen from the NE into the afternoon. There’s still a chance for an afternoon pulse of small S/SE swell from a frontal system that glanced the south-eastern Tasman Sea late Wed/Thurs.

This weekend (Oct 26 - 27)

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First up: a small S/SE swell may possibly glance the coast later this afternoon, and if so, may also linger through Saturday. It's a low confidence event though and not worth working around. 

Otherwise, we have swell potential from the northern quadrant, thanks to a strong northerly fetch developing in our short to mid range swell window this afternoon that will will persist overnight at strength. 

However, it’s not ideally aligned within our swell window. It’s expected to be straight N’ly (we prefer N/NE thru’ NE winds) and will sit a short distance off the mainland. This will probably reduce size prospects by a foot or so compared to a more favourably aligned fetch.

Still, we’ll see building NE swells into Saturday morning, only favouring NE swell magnets and offering very little surf at south facing beaches, and other protected coasts (such as the northern Hunter). Exposed spots should pick up 2ft, almost 2-3ft sets and winds will veer from an overnight N’ly to an early N/NW breeze, before swinging anticlockwise to the W/NW then W/SW. So, conditions will improve all day (though there’s a risk early morning may have a slight wobble). Wave heights will however ease during the afternoon so make the most of the early session.

Sunday will see a complete reversal. Gale force W/SW winds exiting eastern Bass Strait on Saturday will kick up a directional new S’ly swell for Sunday, and conditions should be clean with early light winds and sea breezes under yet influence of a weak ridge of high pressure. Most south facing beaches should see a peak around 2-3ft+ by the afternoon (may be slightly undersized at dawn), and a handful of reliable south swell magnets - such as the Hunter region - may see occasional 3-4ft+ sets. However, beaches without southerly exposure will be much smaller.

Next week (Oct 28 onwards)

Sunday’s south swell will be related to a small fetch associated a much broader, more complex series of polar lows and fronts further south. See chart below for one moment in time from within this sequence.

They all look really good on individual synoptic snapshots, but the latest model guidance has downgraded the way they were initially expected to consolidate, which has reduced size prospects. However, we are still looking at three or four days (actually five, including Sunday) of fluctuating, fun southerly swell across Southern NSW. 

It’s also worth noting that the swell models are not picking up this event very well at all. So my estimates are significantly higher than the swell charts and graphs. 

The primary polar low closest to the ice shelf should provide an undercurrent of 2-3ft S’ly surf (for south facing beaches) throughout this entire frame. There is a slight concern early Monday may not quite see the leading edge of this swell at first light, but it’ll definitely trend upwards through the morning (i.e. before lunch) and will then hold for a few days.

On top of this swell will be an additional secondary south swell on Tuesday, from a front tracking rapidly eastwards below Tasmania on Sunday. This should deliver a brief pulse of size into the 4ft range at most south facing beaches either very late Monday or early Tuesday morning. Exposed south swell mnagnets such as the Hunter may see another foot or so.

A smaller, less favourably aligned front pushing below Tasmania on Monday will kick up another pulse for very late Tuesday (more likely overnight, easing early Wednesday), but a better system is lining up behind that - a strong cut-off low is modelled to clip the Tasmania coast on Tuesday, intensify as it tracks into the lower Tasman Sea, and then generating a boost of S’ly swell late Wednesday or early Thursday. This could again provide periods of 4ft surf at south facing beaches, slightly bigger on the Hunter and at a few other south swell magnets. 

The main downside I can see from this pattern is - aside from the small undercurrent of S’ly swell all week - each of these three ‘pulses’ will be short in duration (because the responsible fronts last only a brief time in the swell window), and timing has them each reaching a peak overnight. 

What this means is that if your preferred surf spot requires a little more oomph than the underlying 2-3ft energy, you’ll need to be on your toes and able to pounce at moment’s notice. 

As for conditions, each morning looks clean with early light winds, and each afternoon will see sea breezes though Tuesday is likely to see stronger NE winds after lunch (than the other days) as a trough approaches from the south (this may kick up some minor NE windswell for Wednesday morning too).

Looking further ahead, and our long term surf prospects beyond Wednesday suggest an anchored ridge of high pressure in the Tasman Sea, and a sustained period of fresh NE winds on the coast, providing NE wind swells from Thursday into the weekend. Late Friday and early Saturday could have a bit of punch too.

See you Monday!