Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 2nd September)

Best Days: Tues/Wed/Thurs: fun E'ly swell with generally OK winds. 

Recap: The weekend’s local SE swell eased a little more slowly than expected, and held in at the upper end of the forecast size range. Saturday saw bumpy 4-5ft surf, Sunday was down to 3ft and conditions improved as onshore winds gradually eased Saturday and swung offshore Sunday. Today we’ve seen a new E/NE swell build across the coast, a little more slowly than expected and just under size expectations (3ft+) with sets more in the 2-3ft range. Winds were light offshore early but a moderate southerly breeze pushed through around lunchtime.

Fun sets at Maroubra this morning

Cenny Coast looking great Monday morning

This week (Sep 3 - 6)

Once again, the models don’t like the look of this week’s surf prospects. 

However, we have some fun waves in store. Today’s southerly change will merge with the remnants of the trough responsible for this morning’s E/NE swell - currently sitting in the north-eastern Tasman Sea - and will slightly strengthen an easterly fetch on its southern flank.

As such, although today’s E/NE swell will ease into Tuesday, we’ll see building E’ly swells into the afternoon that’ll hold through Wednesday before easing Thursday. No major size is expected but sets should occasionally reach 3ft+ at exposed beaches, and conditions look generally clean with variable winds on offer - a couple of weak troughs may cause onshore to crop up here and there but it won’t be overly dominant. 

Thursday afternoon and Friday look small in general, however we have a complex trough pushing across from the west and a last minute infeed from the north-east - whilst not showing very strongly in the latest model guidance - could be ramped up over the coming days and we could be looking at a punchy NE swell to finish the working week. I’ll have more on this in Wednesday’s update. 

This weekend (Sep 7 - 8)

As the trough pushes into the Tasman Sea overnight Friday, we’ll see a deep Tasman Low form close to the coast - possibly as an ECL. This will drive southerly gales along the Southern NSW coast on Saturday, generating large local swells and likely creating very adverse weather. 

As such, Saturday is generally a write off for all but the most sheltered southern corners, with south facing beaches likely to be north of 6-8ft.

This low will move quickly to the east, but current expectations are that strong secondary fronts from the Southern Ocean will merge with the Tasman Sea, maintaining fresh southerly winds and elevated southerly swells of limited quality away from protected spots. 

We should see a morning window of W/SW thru’ SW winds but exposed south facing beaches are likely to remain quite wild and wooly around 4-5ft+, so you’ll have to look for a compromise between size and quality.

Next week (Sep 9 onwards)

Further strong fronts are expected to continue the strong southerly progression through the first half of next week. As such, it’s looking strong and sizeable - and possibly windy - for quite a few days. More on this in the next update on Wednesday.