Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 28th August)

Best Days: Sat/Sun: fun peaky mix of E/NE and S'ly swells with mainly light winds. Mon/Tues/Wed: fun E/NE swells and some small S'ly swells. Wed onwards: extended run of moderate S'ly swells into the following week. Small E/NE swell lingering too.

Recap: A small trough off the Hunter coast generated peaky 3-4ft E’ly surf for this region on Tuesday, though wave heights were smaller south from here. Elsewhere, we’ve seen a small, slow S’ly swell across south facing beaches for the last few days, somewhere between 2ft and very occasionally 2-3ft at south swell magnets but smaller elsewhere thanks to the direction. Winds were variable tending fresh southerly yesterday and have been variable for much of today. 

This week (August 29 - 30)

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A vigorous front will push across Southern NSW tomorrow morning, driving winds around to the south at strength. There’s a slim chance for an early sou’wester but there won’t be much time in it.

Punchy though wind affected local swells will fill in behind the change, building to 4-5ft, maybe 4-6ft at south facing beaches by very late afternoon. Quality will be hard to find and it’ll be a lot smaller elsewhere. Expect smaller surf in the lead up to the late afternoon peak.

Thursday’s front will stall off the Mid North Coast as it becomes absorbed into an existing low pressure trough, and this will cause gusty S/SE winds to linger into Friday morning as wave heights gradually ease from a bumpy 4-5ft (maybe 4-6ft) at south facing beaches. 

A few select locations may see isolated, brief periods of SW winds early morning but it won’t be enough to clean up the mess from Thursday afternoon’s blow. Again, expect much smaller surf elsewhere. 

As mentioned over the last few forecasts, the next few days will also see a smaller underlying S’ly groundswell sourced from strong fronts below Tasmania over the last few days. It’ll be hard to pick it out from the local noise though. 

This weekend (Aug 31 - Sep 1)

I really like the look of the weekend. 

Friday’s trough off the Northern NSW coast will be positioned just far enough north to not influence our local winds too much, but just enough south for the resulting E’ly fetch on its southern flank to sit within our swell window.

For the most part, most regions should see light variable winds both days. The only exceptions are the Hunter coast, which may experience an early lingering S/SE breeze Saturday morning, and the coast south from Sydney which will see a freshening N'ly breeze throughout Sunday afternoon. 

As for surf, we’re looking at peaky E’ly tending E/NE swells in the 3-4ft range both days though with a gradual easing trend throughout Sunday. Wave heights will be largest from Sydney through the Hunter region, with smaller surf south from the Illawarra.

Also in the mix this weekend will be a small long period S’ly groundswell, originating from a powerful though poorly aligned low south of Tasmania tonight, and below the Tasman sea tomorrow. This should provide occasional 3ft sets to south facing beaches on Saturday (smaller elsewhere), easing a little into Sunday. 

Next week (Sep 2 onwards)

The weekend’s trough will broaden considerably into Sunday, much further to the northeast (below New Caledonia, see below) and it’s expected to track only slowly to the east over the following day. 

This will rebuild inconsistent E/NE surf to around 3-4ft Monday (yes, the models aren’t really resolving this event right now), easing a little towards 2-3ft for Tuesday and Wednesday and then with smaller surf settling in Thursday, Friday and Saturday as the low tracks north-east from New Zealand and becomes a more distant source for our region. 

Elsewhere, and a series of strong though poorly aligned cut-off lows and fronts will track below the continent over the weekend and through early next week, generating flukey back-to-back southerly swells that’ll probably only favour reliable south swell magnets. 

This pattern is expected to align more favourably within our south swell window from Wednesday onwards, suggesting an extended period of moderate south swells into next weekend and the start of the following week. 

More on this in Friday’s update.