Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 29th July)

Best Days: Great waves most days, only spoilers are Tues/Wed with average winds. Looking very large Sun/Mon. 

Recap: Well, there ya go. The much discussed flukey E’ly swell delivered better-than-expected results over the weekend, producing 3-4ft surf at times on Saturday, easing to 3ft Sunday and even managing the odd sneaky 3ft set today. Given this swell was produced by a low pressure system tucked inside the NZ swell shadow, it’s quite remarkable that we’ve seen four days of quality waves (remember, the swell initially came up on Friday). Even more impressive is that regions to the north (i.e. SE Qld and Northern NSW) were only a foot or so bigger than many spots in Southern NSW, from the same energy - despite being more exposed to the direct swell energy. 

Still some 2-3ft sets around this morning

This week (July 30 - August 2)

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We’ve got a sustained run of southerly groundswell coming up for the next few weeks, and there are gonna be some big waves at times. 

Tuesday will start small, and conditions aren’t looking great with an early morning S’y change pushing across the region, bumping up exposed beaches. We’ll initially see building windswell in the lee of the change, and then some solid mid-range S’ly swell filling in throughout the day, with sets in the 4-5ft range at south facing beaches into the afternoon, holding through Wednesday. 

However, as mentioned on Friday, the initial stages of the parent low - underneath Tasmania, right now - are very strong (see below), with an impressive slingshot through our acute south swell window, and I think this will generate an underlying longer period pulse peaking concurrently (late Tues, or early Wednesday). This has the potential to deliver 5-6ft+ sets at reliable south swell magnets, though with moderate to fresh S’ly winds at times, conditions won’t be great.

Wednesday morning may see a brief period of early SW winds across some coasts, but it probably won’t be enough to clean up the southerly wobbly from late Tuesday, so expect average conditions ahead of a resumption of moderate cross-shore southerly breezes. 

Away from south facing beaches, surf size will be a lot smaller. 

Although Wednesday’s swell will ease very slowly from Thursday onwards, we’ll see a brief flush of longer period swell in the morning, from a secondary intensification of the same low as it approaches NZ on Tuesday morning, and light variable winds will clean up conditions quite nicely. South facing beaches should still manage 4-5ft sets early (possibly some bigger bombs in the Hunter) but expect wave heights to be down to 3-4ft by Friday morning, and as per usual it’ll be smaller elsewhere. Light winds are also expected on Friday under a weak high pressure ridge. 

A fast moving front through the lower Tasman Sea late Wednesday and early Thursday will then provide another pulse of S’ly swell for late Friday, though the timing isn’t clear at the present time.

At this stage we’re looking at a rebuilding trend around lunchtime across the South Coast but I’m a little cautious for the Sydney region as it may not arrive until dinner time. I’ll assess this in more detail on Wednesday. It does look like a very good swell though, as the responsible fetch will be strong and broad, stretching down to polar latitudes well south of New Zealand. South facing beaches should see solid 4-5ft+ sets at the height of the swell (more likely Saturday morning). 

This weekend (August 3 - 4)

The new pulse expected late Friday will ease rapidly through Saturday. Early morning should see 4-5ft+ sets at south facing beaches (smaller elsewhere, though slightly bigger in the Hunter) but we’ll lose a couple of feet by the afternoon. 

Conditions are looking superb with light W/NW winds for most of the day. 

Sunday is shaping up to be the first day of a really, really impressive south swell event.

The biggest Southern Ocean low of the year (in our swell window, anyway - see below) is expected to intensify south of Tasmania from Friday onwards (see below), with core winds of 60-70kts and - by Saturday - one of the broadest fetches of gale-to-storm force winds I’ve seen in a long time. They won’t be perfectly aimed within our south swell window, but the size, duration and strength will more than compensate for it.

The leading edge of this swell is expected to nose into Southern NSW on Sunday with peak periods in the 20+ second range, and we’ll see a rapid climb in surf size throughout the day with late afternoon likely to reach 8ft+ at many south facing beaches. The large swell periods associated with this event should magnify surf size at offshore bombies, easily pushing 10-12ft+, maybe even bigger. We'll just have to wait and see how model guidance holds over the coming days.  

Even better, the weak high pressure ridge will maintain light winds across the coast. 

So, if big surf is your thing, we’ve got plenty on the boil this weekend. 

Next week (August 5 onwards)

The low responsible for Sunday’s very large swell will ease into Monday, but its slow moving nature will ensure only a gradual drop in size. Monday morning has the potential to see most, if not all of Sunday’s late peak but we’ll lose two or three feet by the end of the day, and from Tuesday onwards expect a similarly slow decline in surf size from 4-6ft, with Wednesday likely to be around the 3ft mark. All with light winds and thus clean conditions!

More in Wednesday’s update.