Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 1st July)

Best Days: Tues: light winds and a strong though inconsistent E/NE swell. Plenty of waves for the rest of the period though with tricky winds. 

Recap: Saturday morning offered small clean surf, though freshening northerly winds bumped things up into the afternoon. Wave heights lifted from 2-3ft to 3-4ft during the day, holding this size range into Sunday morning though it unexpectedly eased to a slow 2ft through the afternoon. Sunday’s conditions were however super clean with offshore winds. Today has seen a steadily building E/NE groundswell, and perfect conditions under a light offshore breeze. Early morning saw set waves in the 4-5ft range, but it’s pushed closer to 6ft through the day and there’s been isolated reports of bigger bombs in the 6-8ft range at a handul of beaches this afternoon. 

Nice peaks at Shark Island this afternoon

Smoking Queensie this morning

Maroubra on the pump

This week (July 2 - 5)

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From a forecasting perspective, we’re currently sitting at an awkward phase of the swell cycle. 

Based on model guidance, the swell trend is still slowly heading upwards, in fact swell periods are expected to reach a peak in the early hours of Tuesday morning. Swell heights are also expected to reach a peak Tuesday morning, and because there’s little synoptic wind present, we can be confident that the model guidance has very little windswell contamination. 

So, even if the actual figures aren’t completely correct, the trend should be a useful tool to compare and contrast to today’s reported surf size.

Lastly, observing the swell trend through Northern NSW and SE Qld over the last two days shows that this event has held an impressive level of energy for the entire period. This lends further weight to the (less common) chances of their being another day of solid E/NE swell tomorrow, from the same source as today. Normally these kinds of events are a one day affair.

Of course, there are no wave buoys in the central Tasman Sea to actually record whether the model guidance is on track or not. So we can't be completely confident. Today’s surf came in reasonably close to forecast expectations, though towards the lower end of the size range, and less consistent that is ideal.

So, as for Tuesday's outlook, I can’t see surf size punching any higher than what we’ve got right now - despite model guidance suggesting a little more size than today - so I’m going to keep my estimations in the 5-6ft+ range at exposed beaches (the odd bigger bomb if you're in the right/wrong place at the right/wrong time), with reasonably long breaks between the bigger waves. Winds will be light/variable tending offshore so conditions should be excellent once again.

The rest of the week looks a little average, though not through a lack of swell. 

The tropical depression responsible for today’s waves is currently stationary south of Fiji, and expected to remain in our E/NE swell window until Thursday (!). That’s almost an entire week of swell generation, aimed fair and square towards Southern NSW. And with the fetch maintaining strength (plus the added bonus of a fully developed sea state, thanks to its stationary nature), every day from Tuesday thru’ Saturday has the potential for set waves between 4-6ft. 

That’s right. Six consecutive days of well overhead surf, potentially double overhead every now and then.

Of course, we won’t see non-stop hourly action; there’ll be long lully periods at times and we’ll see minor rises and falls in the overall surf size: expect Wed and Sat to be closer to the lower end of this size range; conversely Thurs/Fri may see a few sneaky bigger bombs. 

It’s local winds that are going to be an issue, with a high pressure ridge driving in an extended period of synoptic south-easterly winds from Wednesday through Friday, ahead of a developing north-easterly flow over the weekend. 

If we’re very lucky, a handful of coasts will be spared the early onshore Wednesday but it’ll have enveloped mosts regions by mid-morning, and will hold 12-15+ knots for the rest of the week, with isolated pockets of variable winds here and there (again, not everywhere, so keep your expectations low). On the balance there’ll be less wind south of the Illawarra, so conditions will be best here compared to the Sydney, Illawarra and Hunter regions.

The ridge itself will kick up some mid-range E’ly swell on Thursday and Friday too. This should help to fill in the consistency gaps a little with smaller sets around 3ft.

Also worth pointing out that a strong front pushing through the lower Tasman Sea on Tuesday afternoon/Wednesday will kick up a small S’ly swell for Thursday and Friday but no great size is likely.

Southern corners and sheltered points will be your best option Wednesday onwards!

This weekend (July 6 - 7)

As mentioned above, we’ll see strong though inconsistent E/NE swell Saturday, anywhere between 4ft and 6ft, but gradually easing into the afternoon and then through Sunday to 3-4ft. 

Local winds are expected to ease early Saturday but then freshen from the NE throughout the day, with a general northerly trend likely on Sunday as the large high - responsible for our onshore winds this week - moves further east through the Tasman Sea.

So, there’ll be waves all weekend but local conditions look a little iffy. 

I’ll have more on this in Wednesday’s update. 

Next week (July 8 onwards)

The longer term outlook has a smaller mix of E/NE swells into early next week, originating from the retreating ridge across the Northern Tasman Sea over the weekend, and also long range sources way out north-east from New Zealand later this week. 

A small though long period S/SE swell is also possible around Tues/Wed from an intense polar low developing south of new Zealand over the weekend. 

See you Wednesday!