Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 28th June)

Best Days: Every day bar Saturday. Pretty sizey Mon/Tues, and strong for the rest of the week. 

Recap: Wave heights punched a little higher than forecast for the last few days. Easing S’ly and slowly building E/NE swells managed 2-3ft sets on Thursday, with the S’ly swell easing into the afternoon, leaving a 2ft+ E/NE swell today. Conditions have been generally good with early light winds and afternoon sea breezes. 

This weekend (June 29 - 30)

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Don’t get too excited about Saturday.

A front approaching from the west will freshen northerly winds about most regions. We should see an early period of NW winds, but it’ll trend N’ly by mid-morning and become fresh through the afternoon. 

There’ll be a small peaky E/NE swell in the water with 2-3ft sets at times, and the afternoon’s breeze will build local NE windswells about the coast. A small pulse of bigger E/NE swell is likely into the afternoon too. 

The front will cross the coast in the early hours of Sunday morning, delivering fresh NW tending W’ly winds that’ll rapidly improve surface conditions. 

The good news is that wave height estimates have been upgraded a little more since Wednesday, and most beaches with good north-east exposure should pick up occasional 3-4ft sets at times (expect smaller surf at south facing beaches). This E/NE swell will be sourced from the already-strengthening ridge through the northern Tasman Sea, but is a precursor to a much bigger swell due on Monday.

The leading edge of this next swell is due to arrive within a couple of hours (give or take) of sunset. Without any wave buoys in the central Tasman Sea to monitoring incoming swells, we’ll only be able to detect its arrival once it makes landfall. As such, it’ll be worth keeping an eye on the surfcams mid-afternoon for signs of forerunners. I wouldn’t run out some late bombs nudging 6ft on dark. 

Next week (July 1 onwards)

Normally, large swell events identified a long way in advance usually downgrade over time. Fortunately, this event for next week has maintained its strength, in fact we’ve seen small upgrades from forecast to forecast, which is very encouraging. 

Had this weather system been a solitary low, strengthening and then weakening over the course of a day or two, we’d have expected a peak somewhere in the 6ft range or so (based on position, strength, alignment etc), with maximum surf size showing over a six to twelve hour period. 

However, it’s a very slow moving system, and expected to meander within our swell window for quite a lengthy time. This will prolong the plateau of the event, and its long tail is expected to persist through until next weekend thanks to a stationary fetch holding steady to the south-east of Fiji through much of next week. Local conditions pending, this is shaping up to be quite a special swell event. 

At this stage we’ll probably see strong surf building north of 6ft, possibly 6-8ft at times through Monday, fluctuating in and around this size into Tuesday before easing back to a slower, less consistent 4-6ft for Wednesday. I’m expecting anywhere between 4ft and maybe 6ft surf on Thursday too, with a slight drop into the 3-5ft range for Friday. 

Indeed, those estimates are all higher than model guidance is suggesting, but I just don’t think the wave model is properly resolving the ‘fully developed sea state’ across the northern Tasman Sea, which is the result of a stationary synoptic pattern. So I'm confident for more size than we're used to under similar setups. 

It’s also hard to identify all of the small embedded pulses within this pattern over surf a long time frame, so perhaps it’s just best to anticipate an entire week of strong, sizeable, pulsey surf, with the first two days delivering plenty of oversized bombs that’ll likely push above most surfer's comfort zones. 

As for conditions, the only feature we have all week is a front that’ll briefly clip the coast around Wednesday, giving a period of moderate to fresh SW tending S'ly winds, though not as strong as we are used to seeing. A trailing low to the south will generate some southerly swell in its wake for the second half of the week, but it’s really nothing to worry about with such a strong, sustained E/NE swell in the water.

Otherwise, Monday, Tuesday, Thursday and Friday are likely to see slack conditions with light winds and sea breezes.

This is certainly a swell event you don’t want to miss. Fortunately, it’ll last all week so there’ll be plenty of waves to go ‘round. 

My suggestion is to wait out the first couple of days, as there’ll be a lot of tired arms come Thursday and Friday, so you’ll be able to maximise your wave count with less heads in the water. Also, by this time the nearshore zone should be under the influence of a steady pattern of repetitive swell energy and this may result in a better sand situation. That’s just a hunch though.

See you Monday!