Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 17th May)

Best Days: Most days should see fun small S'ly groundswells with mainly light winds. 

Recap: Southerly swells have maintained plenty of waves around 3-4ft at south facing beaches over the last few days, with bigger sets at reliable swell magnets. The swell trend was much more linear than forecast, with no major change in size both days. Winds have been light so conditions have been clean, though afternoon sea breezes have kicked in across some beaches. 

This weekend (May 18 - 19)

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Today’s southerly swell will fade into Saturday, but we’ll see a small long period southerly swell build across the region into Sunday. 

No major size is expected across the region, and the sets will be very lully both days - likely 2-3ft early Saturday at south facing beaches (smaller throughout the day) and then rebuilding to an extremely inconsistent 2-3ft on Sunday again with the new swell. The timing on each swell (downwards Sat, upwards Sun) is not particularly clear though, so keep your eyes peeled for early arrivals (or departures).

I'm also a little concerned that Sunday's new S'ly swell will be much more flukey than the last few days, so keep your expectations pegged slightly lower than normal for this event.

Beaches not open to the south will be much smaller both days, but reliable south swell magnets such as the Hunter should pick up the odd bigger set. There’ll be a minor E’ly swell in the mix both days too.

No major wind strength is expected all weekend, so expect variable conditions and weak afternoon sea breezes. 

Next week (May 20 onwards)

The wind outlook for the next fourteen days says it all: light and variable. All the result of a blocking high in the Tasman Sea. Whilst we may not see an entire fortnight under ten knots, there’s a fair chance much of next week will see settled conditions.

As such we can expect favourable surf conditions up until next weekend, with clean conditions most mornings and light to moderate sea breezes in the afternoons. Classic autumnal weather.

As for surf, a series of small long period southerly swells will maintain active conditions across south facing beaches. Current model guidance has a new swell front reaching the Sydney region every day bar Thursday (earlier arrivals on the South Coast), so it’s hard to be totally confident in the day-to-day trend as every day will experience overlapping swell trains. 

Regardless, Monday and Tuesday are likely to see the biggest and best waves from yet another strong but poorly aligned polar frontal sequence well below Tasmania and New Zealand this weekend (see below), with south facing beaches likely to push back up into the 3ft+ range, larger across the Hunter region. Of course, it’ll be smaller at beaches not open to the south. Wednesday through Friday will see smaller surf, again best suited to south swell magnets. 

Long term forecasts suggest an intense low below Tasmania later next week that could generate a large long period southerly swell for next weekend or early in the following week, plus some renewed trade activity south of Fiji that should perk up our E/NE swell prospects, albeit small in size. 

Have a great weekend, see you Monday!