Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 13th May)

Best Days: Most days should have small fun S'ly swells with mainly light winds. Late Thurs/Fri will see the biggest surf of the week.

Recap: Saturday started off very small, with tiny residual swells and fresh offshore winds. A new S’ly swell hit in the early afternoon, building from 1ft at noon to 4-6ft by 3pm and bigger waves pushing 6-8ft were observed at the end of the day. Strong S’ly swell persisted through Sunday, easing from 5-6ft to 3-5ft; the downwards trend was a little slower than anticipated, and as a result we’ve seen leftover 3ft+ sets at south facing beaches today. Winds were mainly offshore all weekend, though veered fresh SW then S/SW into Saturday afternoon. Light S/SE winds developed Sunday afternoon following the morning’s variable pattern, and this afternoon has transitioned from early offshores to light N’ly breezes.

This week (May 14 - 17)

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First glance of the swell graphs suggests tiny surf and light winds all week.

However, we’ve got some really nice waves on the way. Unfortunately (or fortunately, for those of you that read these notes), the global swell models are not particularly good at picking small long period S’ly swells, and we’ve got a couple of ‘em on the way.

The first pushed across Tasmania today (providing excellent large surf in Victoria on Sunday and today), and it’s now pushing along the South Coast, with the Eden and Batemans Bay recently picking up an increase in peak swell periods to 16 seconds. This energy will reach Sydney over the coming hours, and pulse through Tuesday morning before easing into the afternoon.

But it doesn’t end there. A succession of vigorous fronts traversing the Southern Ocean below Tasmania will generate additional long period southerly swells through the rest of the week, almost one per day, with size fluctuating in the 2-3ft range at south facing beaches, slightly bigger across the Hunter though much smaller at beaches not directly open to the south.

Now, the precise timing of each swell train is pretty hard to pin down across a broad region like Southern NSW, where there can be eight or ten hours difference in arrival time between the Far South Coast and the upper Hunter region. And, each swell will be quite lully owing to the poor fetch alignment within our swell window (and its distant source). So don't expect consistent surf from sunrise to sunset each day; we'll see alternating periods of good waves and downtime. So if upon first glance your favourite south swell magnets isn't doing it, don't write it off as we're likely to see a multitude of pulses push through the region all week.

The last pulse in this sequence is due later Thursday and into Friday, sourced from an incredibly powerful though poorly aligned front tracking up into New Zealand on Tuesday and Wednesday (see below), and this will produce the biggest waves of the week, pushing 3-4ft at south facing beaches, again a little bigger in the Hunter but smaller at non-south facing beaches. 

As for conditions, a slow moving high pressure system will maintain generally light variable winds all week. The only exception to this is a shallow S’ly change for Tuesday, which may momentarily freshen westerly winds on Tuesday morning before swinging southerly during the day, though no major strength is expected. Otherwise expect clean conditions all week with a slight ruffling through the afternoons with weak sea breezes.

This weekend (May 18 - 19)

A cut off low is expected to track slowly through the Bight over the weekend, and will strengthen N’ly winds across the Southern NSW coast. 

Although we’re not expecting any major surf, the tail end of the sustained frontal progression in the Southern Ocean (responsible for this week’s waves) will generate some small sideband S/SE swell both days, easing from 2-3ft early Saturday at south facing beaches to 2ft by Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning, easing further to 1ft by Sunday afternoon. 

As always, expect slightly bigger surf across the Hunter but smaller waves at the majority of beaches not directly open to the south.

Northern corners will therefore be your best option all weekend as they’ll pick up the most size and offer the cleanest conditions. Saturday is the pick of the weekend as it'll see the most size. 

Next week (May 20 onwards)

There's nothing major standing out in the long range charts at this stage, just a small to moderate south swell early/mid week as the weekend’s cut off low pushes into the Tasman Sea. I’ll have more details on this in Wednesday’s update.