Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 10th May)

Best Days: Sun: large though rapidly easing S'ly swell with good winds. Mon onwards: extended peiriod of small pulsey S'ly swells, with light winds.

Recap: Two swells pushed across Southern NSW on Thursday, a small S’ly pulse and some inconsistent, long range S/SE energy that was picked up showing peak swell periods of 15-16 seconds at the buoys. They produced occasional 2-3ft sets across Sydney’s south facing beaches and 3-4ft sets in the Hunter, with light winds and sea breezes. Smaller residual S/SE swell has settled in today, including a minor NE windswell. Winds have been mainly light and variable both days, though light to moderate N/NE winds did eventuate on Thursday afternoon. 

This weekend (May 11 - 12)

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Saturday morning will see a large Tasman Low intensify well off the Southern NSW coast.

Gale force southerly winds are only expected to begin forming in our immediate south swell window (adjacent the South Coast) early Saturday morning, so we’ll probably wake to tiny conditions with freshening W/NW winds that’ll swing W/SW then SW as the morning progresses. S/SW gales are likely across the Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra coasts around lunchtime as the low reaches peak intensity.

This Tasman Low will generate a heavy local swell but local winds will really impact local conditions. Size could reach 6-8ft by the end of the day at south swell magnets, but the only surfable options will be inside sheltered southern corners, where it'll be considerably smaller.

Despite the strength of the low, it’s expected to be only short lived and surf size will ease rapidly through Sunday. Additionally, a high ridging in from the west will relax the pressure gradient and create much cleaner surface conditions with light offshore winds. 

South facing beaches could see early 5-6ft sets (slightly bigger across the Hunter) at dawn, but most beaches will be considerable smaller around 3-4ft, with 2ft sets at protected southern ends. Expect wave heights to almost halve in size throughout the day.

Next week (May 13 onwards)

A blocking high will occupy the Tasman Sea for much of next week, keeping the Southern Ocean storm track quite far south in latitude and maintaining an extended period of small ocean swells and light coastal winds across our region. 

Nevertheless, the storm track will be quite vigorous within our acute southern swell window, and with long swell periods arriving in association with several pulses of fresh energy, we’ll see fun waves at south facing beaches. 

In actual fact, there’s almost one new swell front expected to push across the coast each day of the week, and wave heights should fluctuate between 2ft and maybe 2-3ft for the most part, occasionally pulsing a little higher at times (current expectations for the upper end of this size range are early Tues, then later Wed and early Thurs). More reliable south swell magnets such as the Hunter region should see slightly larger wave heights. 

Away from exposed south facing beaches, we’ll see much smaller surf but the outlook remains favourable for fun small waves all week if you can get yourself to a beach with good southerly exposure. 

There’s nothing any interest showing up long term either at this stage, but I reckon you’ll pick up some fun peaky options all week.

Have a great weekend, see you Monday!